3 Deerfield Rd · Saybrook Manor, CT 06475

$699,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1962 0.31 ac lot Est $674k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional Colonial! This stunning 1916 sq. ft. home is in the desirable Meadowood area, offering convenient access to restaurants, shops, beaches & some water views. It is ideal for commuters, with proximity to I-95, and Boston & New York City only 2.5 hr. away. The home boasts hardwood floors, with a tile floor in the kitchen. The spacious living room is complete with a wood-burning fireplace. Adjacent to the kitchen is a family room featuring a gas fireplace, creating a cozy spot for reading or relaxation. The updated kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, a double oven, and is conveniently next to the dining room. Enjoy outdoor living with a spacious screened-in porch

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $571k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $571k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#129 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Old Saybrook School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #66 of 153 in CT (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kathleen E. Goodwin School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #159 of 553 statewide, top 31%, 401 students, 24% FRL); Old Saybrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 64%, grade C+, #71 of 175 statewide, top 41%, 317 students, 26% FRL); Old Saybrook Senior High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #80 of 194 statewide, top 44%, 347 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $570,895 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $674,432
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Meadowood Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,812 (-5%)	11mo	$499,000	$275	78
4 Chartier Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,920 (+0%)	9mo	$675,000	$352	62
118 Old Sea Ln	0.45mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,994 (+4%)	11mo	$1,750,000	$878	56
1 Hartford Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (-8%)	9mo	$620,000	$352	56
10 Lookout Hill Rd	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,936 (+1%)	13mo	$365,000	$189	51
11 Chandler St	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,052 (+7%)	14mo	$1,420,000	$692	47
3 Lookout Hill Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,881 (-2%)	24mo	$525,000	$279	44
11 Beach Rd E	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-14%)	13mo	$993,500	$603	35
90 Chalker Beach Rd	0.39mi	4/1.5	1,632 (-15%)	24mo	$685,000	$420	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-103,798
• Equity at exit: $104,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-78,586
• Equity at exit: $60,515

Cash invested: $195,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06475

• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,670
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,726/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,199
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,514

Max offer price $699,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $352	+0% $154	+5% $-44	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-71	+0% $154	+5% $380	+10% $605
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $332	base $154	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,975
• Closing costs: $20,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Beach Rd W Old Saybrook, CT	4.0	1.5	1316	$4,500	$3.42	45d	1	0.62mi
58 Chapman Ave Westbrook, CT	3.0	4.0	2353	$4,000	$1.70	45d	1	0.90mi
156 Old Kelsey Point Rd Westbrook, CT	4.0	3.0	1618	$7,500	$4.64	45d	1	1.01mi
226 Old Kelsey Point Rd Westbrook, CT	3.0	2.0	1606	$5,500	$3.42	45d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $699,900 Active
3. 2026-04-22
   historical $699,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,726 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,852 · $821/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,126/yr (+$427/mo · 108.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,726
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,481
• − Management: −$5,481
• − Depreciation: −$20,361
• Taxable loss: −$10,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,459
• After-tax cash flow: $4,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Old Saybrook School District
• NCES district ID: 0903180
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,710
• Composite: 48.81/100
• National rank: #2090
• State rank: #66 of 153 in CT

Livability — Saybrook Manor

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #14643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saybrook Manor, CT
• Population (ZIP): 10,515

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.11%
• Current HPI: 301.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $699,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $699,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,726 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.