443 S Winter St · Adrian, MI 49221

$24,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1940 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fire Damaged property. 2 unit income property that sits on a large lot with plenty of parking. Both units were 2 bedrooms and 1 bath with laundry hookups. Both units have separate gas and electric. One unit has minimal damage and the other unit has substantial damage. The owner is requesting only qualified people that have the ability to repair the property walk through. Bring Flashlights as the electricity is off.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 57 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential income (multi-family)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential property; Two-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade finished area about 1,809 square feet
• Exterior features: Front porch; Lot approximately 66 x 174 (0.26 acre)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas) with separate meters; No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Partial basement with exterior entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 61.7% vs local median 5.7% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 61.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 197.91%
• DSCR: 9.81
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,001
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Allis St	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,816 (+0%)	4mo	$142,500	$78	85
366 Crystal Spring Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,944 (+8%)	7mo	$259,000	$133	63
518 Frank St St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,867 (+3%)	1mo	$155,000	$83	60
404 S Mckenzie St S	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,918 (+6%)	3mo	$173,000	$90	55
950 College Ave	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,821 (+1%)	11mo	$275,000	$151	51
229 Clinton St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,621 (-10%)	1mo	$76,250	$47	50
110 E South St	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,595 (-12%)	6mo	$170,000	$107	47
512 French St	0.53mi	4/1.5	1,564 (-14%)	6mo	$133,000	$85	45
957 State St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,705 (-6%)	11mo	$198,000	$116	45
750 Dennis St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+13%)	11mo	$146,260	$71	44
656 James St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,709 (-6%)	6mo	$150,000	$88	44
903 Michigan Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,551 (-14%)	6mo	$138,000	$89	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.93×
• Total profit: $69,225
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.19×
• Total profit: $154,684
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $374/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $1,150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $218

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-30
   listed $24,900 Active
2. 2026-03-29
   listed $24,900 Active 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Fire Damaged property. 2 unit income property that sits on a large lot with plenty of parking. Both units were 2 bedrooms and 1 bath with laundry hookups. Both units have separate gas and electric. One unit has minimal damage and the other unit has substantial damage. The owner is requesting only qualified people that have the ability to repair the property walk through. Bring Flashlights as the electricity is off.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$374
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $14,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,420
• After-tax cash flow: $10,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian School District
• NCES district ID: 2601950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,288
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7480
• State rank: #370 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-29 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,939 · -19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.