246 Gum Springs Rd · Wells, TX 75969

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1998 5.56 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2/2 Mobile Home on 5.56 acres with a pond, mature trees, and country privacy minutes from Lufkin. Open concept, split bedrooms, add a workshop or a barn, perfect for buyers seeking affordable acreage, hobby farming, or a weekend retreat. Easy highway access.

Key facts

• Pond
• Barn
• 5.56 acres

Tags

• 5.56 ACRES
• POND
• MATURE TREES
• COUNTRY PRIVACY
• WORKSHOP
• BARN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Approximately 5.56 acres; Located in Fitt Subdivision

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Unbranded virtual tour available; Additional virtual tour links available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,378 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Central ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $399 of equity ($622 loan paydown + $-223 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.57%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $30,532
• Equity at exit: $25,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $81,304
• Equity at exit: $29,203

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75969

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $763

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $562	+0% $537	+5% $511	+10% $486
Rent	-10% $423	-5% $480	+0% $537	+5% $594	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $582	-0.5pp $560	base $537	+0.5pp $514	+1.0pp $490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    remarks 258-char remark
16. 2026-06-02
    listed $90,000 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$529/yr (+$44/mo · 47.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,275
• After-tax cash flow: $5,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813500
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,994
• Composite: 37.26/100
• National rank: #4458
• State rank: #294 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wells

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1378
• US rank: #23728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,606

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 235.2344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-05-10 Listed $90,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2020-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.