3033 Bounty Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1981 4,007 sqft lot Est $454k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURN KEY FURNISHED--JUST BRING YOUR CLOTHES & YOUR BOAT--here are many new upgrades including new kitchen--new sub floor with new tile & carpet through out the entire home--both bathrooms have been remodeled including all new tire in the showers--8,000 # covered boat lift--flag pole--the attached lanai has screens or glass windows--full length carport--corner lot.

Key facts

• Direct gulf access
• 4
• New composite dock

Tags

• DIRECT GULF ACCESS
• WATERFRONT LIVING
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW COMPOSITE DOCK
• 4
• 000-LB BOAT LIFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Association fee listed as $0; Community features: boat facilities, non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 covered carport spaces; Driveway (paved)
• Security: High impact doors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home with vinyl siding; Single-story; Entry on level 1; East-facing; Resale property; Has a view
• Construction: Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Sprinkler/irrigation (municipal water source); Patio and open porch; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator with ice maker; Freezer; Garbage disposal; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters; Rooms include bathroom, family room, Florida room, great room
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Impact glass and shutters on windows; Window coverings; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Combined living/dining area; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Cable TV available; Window treatments; Shower only (separate shower)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $989 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Island Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 236 students, 45% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $299k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.29%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $454,080
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3073 Sloop Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	4mo	$430,000	$430	77
3864 Royal Palm Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	960 (-9%)	14mo	$250,000	$260	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $14,865
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $95,314
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,008/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$915
• Net cashflow: $989

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,105

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,159	-5% $1,074	+0% $989	+5% $905	+10% $820
Rent	-10% $645	-5% $817	+0% $989	+5% $1,161	+10% $1,334
Rate	-1.0pp $1,140	-0.5pp $1,065	base $989	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $833

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	25d	1	0.12mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	25d	1	0.14mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	0.34mi
2744 Sanderling Ct Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	841	$5,300	$6.30	25d	1	0.67mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	25d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   price $299,000
3. 2026-04-10
   price $310,000
4. 2026-03-11
   status Active
5. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-03
   price $321,000
7. 2026-01-17
   listed $338,000 Active
8. 2015-03-24
   soldstatus $189,500
9. 2015-03-17
   price $189,500 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   TURN KEY FURNISHED--JUST BRING YOUR CLOTHES & YOUR BOAT--here are many new upgrades including new kitchen--new sub floor with new tile & carpet through out the entire home--both bathrooms have been remodeled including all new tire in the showers--8,000 # covered boat lift--flag pole--the attached lanai has screens or glass windows--full length carport--corner lot.

10. 2015-03-17
    price $194,900 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    TURN KEY FURNISHED--JUST BRING YOUR CLOTHES & YOUR BOAT--here are many new upgrades including new kitchen--new sub floor with new tile & carpet through out the entire home--both bathrooms have been remodeled including all new tire in the showers--8,000 # covered boat lift--flag pole--the attached lanai has screens or glass windows--full length carport--corner lot.

11. 2015-03-17
    soldstatus $189,500 Sold 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    TURN KEY FURNISHED--JUST BRING YOUR CLOTHES & YOUR BOAT--here are many new upgrades including new kitchen--new sub floor with new tile & carpet through out the entire home--both bathrooms have been remodeled including all new tire in the showers--8,000 # covered boat lift--flag pole--the attached lanai has screens or glass windows--full length carport--corner lot.

12. 2015-01-31
    status Pending 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    TURN KEY FURNISHED--JUST BRING YOUR CLOTHES & YOUR BOAT--here are many new upgrades including new kitchen--new sub floor with new tile & carpet through out the entire home--both bathrooms have been remodeled including all new tire in the showers--8,000 # covered boat lift--flag pole--the attached lanai has screens or glass windows--full length carport--corner lot.

13. 2015-01-10
    listed $194,900 Active 378-char remark

    Show marketing remark (378 chars)

    TURN KEY FURNISHED--JUST BRING YOUR CLOTHES & YOUR BOAT--here are many new upgrades including new kitchen--new sub floor with new tile & carpet through out the entire home--both bathrooms have been remodeled including all new tire in the showers--8,000 # covered boat lift--flag pole--the attached lanai has screens or glass windows--full length carport--corner lot.

14. 2002-04-17
    soldstatus $152,500
15. 2002-04-16
    soldstatus $152,500
16. 1991-03-06
    soldstatus $81,400
17. 1978-04-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,008
• − Insurance: −$6,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,183
• − Management: −$4,183
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $7,856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,885
• After-tax cash flow: $9,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2391.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $299,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $310,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $321,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $338,000 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $189,500 Public Records
• 2015-03-17 Price Changed $189,500 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-17 Sold (MLS) $189,500 FORTMLS
• 2015-03-17 Price Changed $194,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-01-31 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2015-01-10 Listed $194,900 FORTMLS
• 2002-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records
• 2002-04-16 Sold (MLS) $152,500 FORTMLS
• 1991-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $81,400 Public Records
• 1978-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,008 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.