2533 W Mckinley Ave #4 · Fresno, CA 93728

$95,000

3 bd · 1.75 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1969 $91/sqft · 75% above area ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.75-bath mobile home offering comfort, convenience, and great community amenities! With approximately 1,040 square feet of living space, this home features durable laminate flooring throughout and a newer HVAC system to keep you comfortable year-round. The kitchen is equipped with a gas stove and the home has an in-home laundry room. Step outside to enjoy your own private, fenced backyard ideal for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. A versatile multipurpose shed provides extra storage or workspace to suit your needs. Parking is a breeze with an extended carport that comfortably fits up to three mid-sized sedans. Located in a welcoming community, residents enjoy access to a sparkling pool and spa, as well as a recreation room available for private events and gatherings. Convenient Amazon lockers are also on-site for secure package delivery. This home offers an excellent blend of comfort, functionality, and community living. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Extended carport
• Spa
• Multipurpose shed

Tags

• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• MULTIPURPOSE SHED
• EXTENDED CARPORT
• SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.75-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.49%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,159
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 75.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2533 Mckinley Ave W #245	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	6mo	$70,000	$61	75
2533 W Mckinley Ave #53	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+6%)	17mo	$62,000	$56	66
1941 N Golden State Blvd #75	0.45mi	3/2.0	960 (-8%)	23mo	$90,000	$94	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $31,093
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $97,178
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93728

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $709	+0% $676	+5% $643	+10% $610
Rent	-10% $543	-5% $609	+0% $676	+5% $743	+10% $809
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $700	base $676	+0.5pp $651	+1.0pp $626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2130 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,882	$2.09	2d	5	0.20mi
2212 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	671	$1,485	$2.21	2d	2	0.30mi
2264 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	2d	1	0.35mi
2412 W Dennett Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	2d	1	0.57mi
1510 N Brooks Ave Unit Advertising Unit Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	805	$1,150	$1.43	2d	1	0.91mi
3166 W Princeton Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,300	$1.78	2d	2	0.93mi
3165 W Shields Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	565	$1,300	$2.30	2d	1	1.03mi
3207 W Shields Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,725	$1.80	2d	3	1.07mi
2007 N Teilman Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	44d	1	1.13mi
2530 W Fountain Way Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$990	$1.15	44d	1	1.21mi
1578 N Delno Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,050	$1.58	44d	1	1.24mi
728 W Vassar Ave Unit 102 Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1226	$2,450	$2.00	44d	1	1.28mi
1584 N Carruth Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1002	$2,995	$2.99	44d	1	1.30mi
610 W Hammond Ave Unit 614 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	2d	1	1.32mi
3326 N West Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,225	$1.29	22d	1	1.44mi
1212 W Andrews Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	17d	1	1.45mi
3328 N Marks Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	2d	7	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $100,000 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.75-bath mobile home offering comfort, convenience, and great community amenities! With approximately 1,040 square feet of living space, this home features durable laminate flooring throughout and a newer HVAC system to keep you comfortable year-round. The kitchen is equipped with a gas stove and the home has an in-home laundry room. Step outside to enjoy your own private, fenced backyard ideal for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. A versatile multipurpose shed provides extra storage or workspace to suit your needs. Parking is a breeze with an extended carport that comfortably fits up to three mid-sized sedans. Located in a welcoming community, residents enjoy access to a sparkling pool and spa, as well as a recreation room available for private events and gatherings. Convenient Amazon lockers are also on-site for secure package delivery. This home offers an excellent blend of comfort, functionality, and community living. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $110,000 Active 1022-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1022 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1.75-bath mobile home offering comfort, convenience, and great community amenities! With approximately 1,040 square feet of living space, this home features durable laminate flooring throughout and a newer HVAC system to keep you comfortable year-round. The kitchen is equipped with a gas stove and the home has an in-home laundry room. Step outside to enjoy your own private, fenced backyard ideal for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. A versatile multipurpose shed provides extra storage or workspace to suit your needs. Parking is a breeze with an extended carport that comfortably fits up to three mid-sized sedans. Located in a welcoming community, residents enjoy access to a sparkling pool and spa, as well as a recreation room available for private events and gatherings. Convenient Amazon lockers are also on-site for secure package delivery. This home offers an excellent blend of comfort, functionality, and community living. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,017
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,684
• After-tax cash flow: $6,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 18,313
• Household income: $62,986
• Rent vs Own: 54.5% rent · 45.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 940.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 23% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -214.61%
• Current HPI: 419.8763
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $100,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $110,000 FRESNOMLS