173 County Road 663 · Holly Pond, AL 35077

$110,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,055 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2018 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath large lot and offers comfortable, open living space. Step inside to discover generously sized rooms throughout, including a bright and inviting great room that flows seamlessly into the open kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The expansive kitchen features ample counter and cabinet space for all of your culinary needs. An extra den area provides flexible space for a home office, playroom, or cozy retreat. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy comfort, and space. The property is owned by the US Dept. Of HUD. Case number 013-034979 It is listed as IE (Insured Escrow) subject to Appraisal. Seller makes no represe

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Expansive kitchen
• Open living space

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• GREAT ROOM
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• EXTRA DEN AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.7% in Holly Pond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#326 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cullman County (rural): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #49 of 129 in AL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holly Pond Elementary School (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 578 students, 71% FRL); Holly Pond High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 278 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Cullman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.41%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,113
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $31,888
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35077

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $382	+0% $344	+5% $306	+10% $268
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $289	+0% $344	+5% $399	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $372	base $344	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$607
• After-tax cash flow: $3,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cullman County
• NCES district ID: 0101020
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,449
• Composite: 28.39/100
• National rank: #6767
• State rank: #49 of 129 in AL

Livability — Holly Pond

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #19930

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cullman County · 47,767 people
• Metro: Cullman, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,107
• Household income: $48,276
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Cullman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,522 people
• By 2030: 85,402 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 86,152 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 85,202 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 79,679 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 66,943 · -20.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cullman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.5) · D 9.4% · R 89.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -65.2pp · 2024: -80.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.5 2020: R+77.4 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+69.5 2008: R+65.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.31%
• Current HPI: 258.7978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cullman, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $110,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $68 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.