5296 Old Town Neck Dr · Eastville, VA 23310

$122,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1958 7,405 sqft lot $139/sqft · 26% below area Est $165k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock massive potential with this 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom diamond in the rough. Situated on a manageable 7,285-square-foot lot, this 876-square-foot single-family home offers a rare entry-level price point in the highly desirable Cape Charles market. Originally built in 1939, this property is a prime candidate for a full renovation or a modern "tiny home" style conversion.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built as actual year recorded
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#332 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A, cost of living A, health & safety B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northampton County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #103 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northampton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,340 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.67%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,279
• List price: $122,000
• Delta: -26.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,340
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $28,225
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23310

• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $367	+0% $332	+5% $298	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $279	+0% $332	+5% $386	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $363	base $332	+0.5pp $301	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $122,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $122,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $122,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $122,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $122,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $122,000 Active 384-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$36/mo · 77.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $2,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$502
• After-tax cash flow: $3,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northampton County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102710
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,253
• Composite: 40.63/100
• National rank: #3687
• State rank: #103 of 131 in VA

Livability — Eastville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #12764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment C- Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,934

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,360 people
• By 2030: 10,838 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 9,696 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 8,764 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 6,885 · -39.4%
• By 2100: 4,891 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 28% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.7% · R 46.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.64%
• Current HPI: 282.274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $122,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.