2120 Robins Ln SE #78 · Salem, OR 97306

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1992 $106/sqft · 11% above area Est $145k · 11% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Accepted Offer with Contingencies. Come enjoy the relaxing lifestyle that Terrace Lake 55+ Park has to offer, with a Lake to sit and enjoy by or multiple activities at the club or a relaxing swim in the pool this summer. This well kept home offers lots of natural light through the many windows and sky lights. large open living/dinning room, den space off kitchen, Kitchen offers lots of storage and ample counter space. Newer appliances. Vaulted ceilings, large covered deck to enjoy, low maintenance yard with UGS, Oversized two car garage finished room in garage for hobbies. Roof was replaced in 2016, HVAC has been serviced twice a year.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Lots of storage
• Den space

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DINING ROOM
• DEN SPACE
• LOTS OF STORAGE
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• VAULTED CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park serial number: CE11299; No assessments or liens reported; Possession at COE
• Financial info: Details not provided
• HOA & community: Located in Terrace Lake 55+ park; Adult park; Community amenities include a lake, clubhouse activities, and a pool

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Oversized garage with a finished hobby room
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Gas water heater; Park rent includes cable and garbage
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Entry level on main; Front-facing exterior; Cream exterior color
• Construction: Built in 1992; T111 siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Continuous foundation; Manufactured home make: Goldenwest, model: Country Est
• Exterior features: Partial fenced yard; Landscaped; Covered deck; Underground sprinklers; Low-maintenance yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Plenty of storage and ample counter space; Dishwasher; All kitchen appliances included; Newer appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Details not provided
• Heating & cooling: Gas and electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; HVAC serviced twice yearly
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Den; Large open living and dining area; Low-maintenance yard; Covered deck
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.54%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,596
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: 10.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2000 Robins Ln SE #8	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (0%)	5mo	$127,500	$84	80
2120 Robins Ln SE #66	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+2%)	7mo	$182,000	$118	80
2000 Robins Ln SE #9	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+5%)	4mo	$143,000	$90	72
2040 Navaho Ct SE	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	4mo	$94,999	$61	68
6795 Fairway Ave SE #6795	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-5%)	4mo	$75,000	$52	67
2120 Robins Ln SE #185	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	5mo	$224,900	$130	67
2000 Robins Ln SE #40	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+7%)	6mo	$81,200	$50	66
2020 Nomad Ct SE	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	8mo	$50,000	$35	64
2065 National Ct SE	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	0mo	$160,000	$119	63
2155 Robins Ln SE #33	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,337 (-12%)	1mo	$100,000	$75	63
2120 Robins Ln SE #108	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-14%)	7mo	$139,900	$108	61
2155 SE Robins Ln #31	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-14%)	6mo	$137,700	$106	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,247
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $28,914
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97306

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,207/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Madras St SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,615	$1.80	14d	10	0.41mi
2116 Nomad Ct SE Unit 2120 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,425	$1.36	14d	1	0.46mi
6127 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,450	$1.60	43d	1	0.49mi
1951 Madras St SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1465	$1,975	$1.35	21d	1	0.53mi
1691 Waln Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,725	$1.81	14d	6	0.57mi
5943 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	43d	1	0.62mi
6150 Fircrest St SE Unit 6160 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1140	$2,050	$1.80	14d	1	0.70mi
6150 Fircrest St SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1140	$2,050	$1.80	14d	1	0.70mi
5823 Reed Ln SE Unit 112 Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1198	$1,995	$1.67	23d	1	0.72mi
6953 Talloc Ave SE Unit 6955 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,295	$1.62	14d	1	0.73mi
5815 Reed Ln SE Unit 133 Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1198	$1,995	$1.67	23d	1	0.74mi
1544 Fircrest Ct SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1296	$1,850	$1.43	23d	1	0.78mi
1410 Jonmart Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,995	$1.82	14d	1	0.85mi
1543 Wiltsey Rd SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,475	$1.41	14d	4	0.88mi
5512 Murray St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,645	$2.07	21d	1	1.04mi
2772 Bastille Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,495	$1.55	21d	1	1.05mi
5442 Monterey Dr SE Unit 5442 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,995	$1.79	23d	1	1.11mi
5423 Monterey Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,295	$1.58	23d	1	1.11mi
2846 Vintage Ave SE Unit 2846 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1105	$1,895	$1.71	43d	1	1.22mi
5787 Sunstone St SE Unit 5787 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1192	$1,645	$1.38	23d	1	1.29mi
1250 Baxter Rd SE Unit 1276 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1289	$2,395	$1.86	14d	1	1.34mi
6755 Devon Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	2213	$3,100	$1.40	43d	1	1.38mi
5290 Baxter Ct SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,900	$1.69	14d	1	1.47mi
5248 Baxter Ct SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1105	$1,750	$1.58	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $159,900 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active under Contract 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active under Contract 30 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $159,900 Active 608-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,207 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,207 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,207
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$780
• After-tax cash flow: $4,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,383
• Household income: $101,753
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1437.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -335.25%
• Current HPI: 279.7875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-05-24 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $159,900 WVMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,207 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.