412 W Orange St · Troy, AL 36081

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1948 0.30 ac lot Est $136k · 12% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home 3 bed 2 bath, in ground pool. Quiet neighborhood. All offers must be submitted in the portal, please contact agent for link.

Key facts

• Quiet neighborhood
• In ground pool
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• IN GROUND POOL
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.0% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#148 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Troy City (rural): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #80 of 129 in AL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 42 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,730/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 934% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.72%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,680
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Orion St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	11mo	$95,000	$62	56
1128 N Three Notch St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,924 (+13%)	10mo	$154,000	$80	34
106 Sawtooth Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+5%)	23mo	$279,900	$157	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $17,499
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $62,809
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36081

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $614	+0% $580	+5% $546	+10% $512
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $512	+0% $580	+5% $648	+10% $717
Rate	-1.0pp $640	-0.5pp $611	base $580	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Orion St Troy, AL	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	44d	1	0.34mi
217 Orion St Troy, AL	3.0	2.0	1770	$1,925	$1.09	44d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2020-06-03
   soldstatus $155,000
4. 2009-08-14
   soldstatus $124,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 90% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,281
• After-tax cash flow: $5,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy City
• NCES district ID: 0103330
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $30,426
• Composite: 23.03/100
• National rank: #7973
• State rank: #80 of 129 in AL

Livability — Troy

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #13713

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, AL
• County: Pike County · 15,143 people
• City population: 15,143
• Metro: Troy, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,143
• Household income: $44,375
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 934.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,683 people
• By 2030: 35,552 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 37,056 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 38,617 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 43,393 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 45,455 · +31.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 42% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 37.1% · R 62.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.2pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+20.3 2012: R+13.7 2008: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.93%
• Current HPI: 128.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Troy, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — SAMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $120,000 SAMLS
• 2020-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $124,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,287 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.