307 Cr 3003 · Newton, TX 75966

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1994 0.50 ac lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all Investors! Are you looking for a new home to add to your portfolio or a first time buyer wanting to put your own personal style into your new home in Newton ISD? This 2 bedroom, 1 and a half bathroom brick home sits on half an acre. There is a large screened in patio perfect for enjoying a morning coffee or even just to watch nature! The living room as tray ceilings, recessed lighting and tile flooring throughout. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space. Off the living room there is an area that could be used as a dining room with vinyl flooring. The back yard has a covered patio and storage building. To the side of the house there is an additional storage building that serves as another bedroom with a window unit. With some TLC, you can make this your own!

Key facts

• Storage building
• Covered patio
• Screened in patio

Tags

• SCREENED IN PATIO
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE BUILDING
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,355 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newton El (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 380 students, 82% FRL); Newton Middle (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 333 students, 79% FRL); Newton H S (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,632 statewide, top 74%, 255 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.72%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $35,600
• Equity at exit: $26,164

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $86,560
• Equity at exit: $41,475

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75966

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,727/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $576

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $448	+0% $433	+5% $417	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $344	-5% $388	+0% $433	+5% $477	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $447	base $433	+0.5pp $419	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $55,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $55,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Are you looking for a new home to add to your portfolio or a first time buyer wanting to put your own personal style into your new home in Newton ISD? This 2 bedroom, 1 and a half bathroom brick home sits on half an acre. There is a large screened in patio perfect for enjoying a morning coffee or even just to watch nature! The living room as tray ceilings, recessed lighting and tile flooring throughout. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space. Off the living room there is an area that could be used as a dining room with vinyl flooring. The back yard has a covered patio and storage building. To the side of the house there is an additional storage building that serves as another bedroom with a window unit. With some TLC, you can make this your own!

19. 2026-01-15
    price $55,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Are you looking for a new home to add to your portfolio or a first time buyer wanting to put your own personal style into your new home in Newton ISD? This 2 bedroom, 1 and a half bathroom brick home sits on half an acre. There is a large screened in patio perfect for enjoying a morning coffee or even just to watch nature! The living room as tray ceilings, recessed lighting and tile flooring throughout. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space. Off the living room there is an area that could be used as a dining room with vinyl flooring. The back yard has a covered patio and storage building. To the side of the house there is an additional storage building that serves as another bedroom with a window unit. With some TLC, you can make this your own!

20. 2025-08-14
    price $75,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Are you looking for a new home to add to your portfolio or a first time buyer wanting to put your own personal style into your new home in Newton ISD? This 2 bedroom, 1 and a half bathroom brick home sits on half an acre. There is a large screened in patio perfect for enjoying a morning coffee or even just to watch nature! The living room as tray ceilings, recessed lighting and tile flooring throughout. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space. Off the living room there is an area that could be used as a dining room with vinyl flooring. The back yard has a covered patio and storage building. To the side of the house there is an additional storage building that serves as another bedroom with a window unit. With some TLC, you can make this your own!

21. 2025-05-21
    listed $87,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Calling all Investors! Are you looking for a new home to add to your portfolio or a first time buyer wanting to put your own personal style into your new home in Newton ISD? This 2 bedroom, 1 and a half bathroom brick home sits on half an acre. There is a large screened in patio perfect for enjoying a morning coffee or even just to watch nature! The living room as tray ceilings, recessed lighting and tile flooring throughout. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space. Off the living room there is an area that could be used as a dining room with vinyl flooring. The back yard has a covered patio and storage building. To the side of the house there is an additional storage building that serves as another bedroom with a window unit. With some TLC, you can make this your own!

22. 2021-08-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,727 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,727 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,727
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $4,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Newton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #23337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,773

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 153.3331
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $55,000 BBOR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $75,000 BBOR
• 2025-05-21 Listed $87,000 BBOR
• 2021-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,727 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.