30 Meadow Oaks Pl · Millbrook, AL 36054

$187,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1996 Est $199k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great home in fabulous Meadow Oaks. This 3 bed 2 ba home is located convenient to Prattville and the interstate. The home has high ceilings, fireplace, large kitchen, fenced backyard with patio, and security system. The owners have taken great care of this property including replacing the roof and water heater in the past couple years. This home comes complete with ALL appliances, including WASHER AND DRYER!!! The owners are offering a flooring allowance with an acceptable offer.

Key facts

• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coosada Elementary School (930 students, 70% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #61 of 257 statewide, top 24%, 1,185 students, 75% FRL); Stanhope Elmore High School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #87 of 305 statewide, top 29%, 1,181 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 44% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,703 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,485
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3242 Browns Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-1%)	3mo	$215,000	$156	90
3340 Browns Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-2%)	2mo	$210,000	$154	90
193 Homewood Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+13%)	4mo	$249,900	$159	68
126 Forest Trl	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,324 (-5%)	1mo	$163,999	$124	67
87 Penton Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-4%)	9mo	$183,500	$138	66
61 Penton Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-9%)	11mo	$190,000	$150	63
44 Vann Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-4%)	7mo	$242,500	$181	61
157 Cattail Curv	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+3%)	5mo	$205,000	$143	60
5761 Main St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,551 (+11%)	1mo	$193,000	$124	57
256 James Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	8mo	$135,000	$107	52
99 Cattail Curv	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+7%)	4mo	$201,000	$135	51
125 Cattail Curv	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+12%)	12mo	$210,000	$135	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,307
• Equity at exit: $27,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $59,347
• Equity at exit: $16,212

Cash invested: $52,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36054

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$983
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $424/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $187,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $321	+0% $268	+5% $215	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $131	-5% $199	+0% $268	+5% $336	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $315	base $268	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,875
• Closing costs: $5,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5421 Shady Dr Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1809	$1,800	$1.00	45d	1	0.16mi
33 Jamestown Loop Millbrook, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,375	$1.10	15d	1	0.47mi
30 Payton Ct Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,000	$1.13	15d	1	0.64mi
63 Lilly Pad Cir Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	15d	1	0.85mi
101 Crossings Dr Millbrook, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,670	$1.54	15d	7	1.02mi
223 S Springfield Dr Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,950	$1.11	45d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $187,500
2. 2026-04-15
   soldstatus $190,000
3. 2012-09-18
   soldstatus $119,000 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   This is a great home in fabulous Meadow Oaks. This 3 bed 2 ba home is located convenient to Prattville and the interstate. The home has high ceilings, fireplace, large kitchen, fenced backyard with patio, and security system. The owners have taken great care of this property including replacing the roof and water heater in the past couple years. This home comes complete with ALL appliances, including WASHER AND DRYER!!! The owners are offering a flooring allowance with an acceptable offer.

4. 2012-09-18
   soldstatus $119,000

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   This is a great home in fabulous Meadow Oaks. This 3 bed 2 ba home is located convenient to Prattville and the interstate. The home has high ceilings, fireplace, large kitchen, fenced backyard with patio, and security system. The owners have taken great care of this property including replacing the roof and water heater in the past couple years. This home comes complete with ALL appliances, including WASHER AND DRYER!!! The owners are offering a flooring allowance with an acceptable offer.

5. 2012-07-12
   listed $124,900 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   This is a great home in fabulous Meadow Oaks. This 3 bed 2 ba home is located convenient to Prattville and the interstate. The home has high ceilings, fireplace, large kitchen, fenced backyard with patio, and security system. The owners have taken great care of this property including replacing the roof and water heater in the past couple years. This home comes complete with ALL appliances, including WASHER AND DRYER!!! The owners are offering a flooring allowance with an acceptable offer.

6. 2010-07-01
   listed $129,900
7. 2004-05-27
   soldstatus $94,900
8. 2004-05-27
   soldstatus $94,900
9. 2004-04-09
   listed $94,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $424 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 81.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,503
• − Property taxes: −$424
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$5,455
• Taxable income: $90
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21
• After-tax cash flow: $3,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millbrook, AL
• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• City population: 14,600
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,600
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+97.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $187,500 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-18 Sold (MLS) $119,000 MAAR
• 2012-07-12 Listed $124,900 MAAR
• 2010-07-01 Listed $129,900 MAAR
• 2004-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records
• 2004-05-27 Sold (MLS) $94,900 MAAR
• 2004-04-09 Listed $94,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $424 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.