220 Kellyn Ct · Deerwood, TX 77306

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2005 7,021 sqft lot $114/sqft · 13% below area Est $216k · 13% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath, single-story home featuring an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living, and dining areas. The spacious living area flows into the kitchen, which offers ample cabinetry and a center island. The primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are generously sized and share a full bath with a tub and shower combo. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced back and side yard along with a two-car garage, offering both privacy and convenience.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Open floor plan
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• ENSUITE BATH
• DUAL SINKS
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $189k implies a 366% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,477
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -12.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16430 Tracy Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,667 (+1%)	1mo	$220,000	$132	89
236 Kellyn Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (-4%)	8mo	$239,000	$150	79
256 Kellyn Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,766 (+7%)	0mo	$199,000	$113	76
16403 Tracy Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-2%)	16mo	$219,900	$136	74
260 Kellyn Ct	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,740 (+5%)	7mo	$209,990	$121	72
191 Carmen Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-5%)	19mo	$174,900	$112	64
194 Carmen Blvd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-5%)	23mo	$205,000	$131	62
204 Shoreview Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-2%)	11mo	$249,900	$154	58
16475 N Emerson	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-12%)	13mo	$174,900	$120	48
16443 N Emerson Cir	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+14%)	19mo	$99,900	$53	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,730
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,938
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,517/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,751

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $223	+0% $170	+5% $116	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $92	+0% $170	+5% $248	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $218	base $170	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	44d	1	1.07mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	1.13mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	44d	1	1.13mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	22d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $189,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-03-26
    price $220,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath, single-story home featuring an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living, and dining areas. The spacious living area flows into the kitchen, which offers ample cabinetry and a center island. The primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are generously sized and share a full bath with a tub and shower combo. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced back and side yard along with a two-car garage, offering both privacy and convenience.

15. 2026-02-23
    price $235,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath, single-story home featuring an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living, and dining areas. The spacious living area flows into the kitchen, which offers ample cabinetry and a center island. The primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are generously sized and share a full bath with a tub and shower combo. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced back and side yard along with a two-car garage, offering both privacy and convenience.

16. 2026-01-20
    listed $245,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath, single-story home featuring an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the kitchen, living, and dining areas. The spacious living area flows into the kitchen, which offers ample cabinetry and a center island. The primary bedroom provides a comfortable retreat with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are generously sized and share a full bath with a tub and shower combo. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced back and side yard along with a two-car garage, offering both privacy and convenience.

17. 2026-01-03
    historical $1,519
18. 2025-12-25
    price $1,519
19. 2025-12-20
    price $1,549
20. 2025-12-16
    price $1,569
21. 2025-12-11
    price $1,619
22. 2025-12-07
    price $1,649
23. 2025-12-02
    price $1,669
24. 2025-11-28
    listed $1,699
25. 2013-03-11
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2013-02-15
    status Pending
27. 2013-02-11
    status Active
28. 2013-02-01
    status Pending
29. 2013-01-22
    price $70,200
30. 2012-12-18
    listed $78,000 Active
31. 2005-11-08
    soldstatus
32. 2005-07-05
    soldstatus $40,526

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,517 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,517 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,517
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,887
• − Management: −$1,887
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $2,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+442.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Rental Removed $1,519 Tricon
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $1,519 Tricon
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $1,549 Tricon
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $1,569 Tricon
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $1,619 Tricon
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $1,649 Tricon
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $1,669 Tricon
• 2025-11-28 Listed for Rent $1,699 Tricon
• 2013-03-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-02-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-02-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-02-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-01-22 Price Changed $70,200 HARMLS
• 2012-12-18 Listed $78,000 HARMLS
• 2005-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $40,526 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,517 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.