15 E Bradley St #9 · Miramar Beach, FL 32550

$230,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 151 Days on market

Built 2004 1.25 ac lot Est $255k · 10% under $158/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner Financing Available! Nestled in one of Miramar Beach's most desirable gated communities, this beautifully remodeled 1BR/1BA home in Fox Run Park is just two short blocks from the sugar-white sands and emerald waters of the Gulf. Featuring brand-new flooring, fresh paint, granite countertops, and a host of other upgrades, this coastal retreat is move-in ready. After a day at the beach, unwind on the inviting screened-in porch and soak in the relaxing Florida breeze.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Screened-in porch
• Granite countertops

Tags

• REMODELED
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SCREENED-IN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association services include grounds maintenance, management, trash service and water

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 2004
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Enclosed deck; Dead-end lot; Level lot; Within 1/2 mile to water; Private road frontage; Paved road access; Controlled access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (master on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer/dryer hookup; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.1% in Miramar Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Van R. Butler Elementary School (math 77% / reading 69%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 1,013 students, 30% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 948 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,246 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
81 Payne St #17	0.13mi	1/1.0	490 (-2%)	9mo	$250,000	$510	83
81 Payne St	0.15mi	1/1.0	490 (-2%)	9mo	$250,000	$510	82
80 W Bradley St Lot 12	0.10mi	1/1.0	480 (-4%)	8mo	$225,000	$469	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,590
• Equity at exit: $83,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $21,450
• Equity at exit: $115,802

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32550

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 948
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$158
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,212

Max offer price $191,186

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-189	+0% $-268	+5% $-348	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-342	+0% $-268	+5% $-194	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-210	base $-268	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 Botanic Way Miramar Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,889	$1.69	14d	56	0.29mi
64 Cross Creek Rd #20 Miramar Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	612	$1,700	$2.78	14d	1	0.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $158 · $1,896/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $230,000 Pending 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $230,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    status Active
12. 2026-03-17
    status Pending
13. 2025-10-18
    status Pending
14. 2025-10-15
    status Active
15. 2025-10-07
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-01
    price $230,000
17. 2025-08-26
    price $249,900
18. 2025-06-17
    listed $279,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − HOA: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$7,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miramar Beach

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #10855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miramar Beach, FL
• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 8,486
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,486
• Household income: $101,250
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 77.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 247.7567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-03-17 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-10-18 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-10-15 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-10-07 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $230,000 ECAR
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $249,900 ECAR
• 2025-06-17 Listed $279,000 ECAR