4824 Orville Ave · Baltimore, MD 21205

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Townhouse · 132 Days on market

Built 1942 $461/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hard-to-find all-brick 2-bedroom home in Armistead Gardens! This one-level ranch-style residence features a convenient side entry from a 12’ x 6’ covered porch and is located in one of Baltimore’s original affordable cooperative housing communities. Inside, you’ll find hardwood floors, updated kitchen cabinetry, and dual-pane replacement windows. Additional highlights include fenced front, rear & side yard, private driveway plus ample on-street parking, making this an excellent value for a 2-bedroom home in the Gardens. About Armistead Gardens: Armistead Homes Corporation (AHC) is a non-profit cooperative community consisting of 1,512 homes across 164 acres in

Key facts

• $461 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1942

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership interest: Cooperative; Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Monthly coop fee (professional on-site management); Fee includes electricity, taxes, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (off-street) with parking space conveys; One total garage/parking space; One driveway space; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Municipal trash collection; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Single-floor unit; Average condition; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space and slab foundation; Double-pane windows; Shed on property; Above grade structures present
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Porch(es); Chain link rear fencing (fully fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Rooms include: Living Room, Master Bedroom, Bedroom 2
• Flooring: Wood; Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating fuel; 100 Amp electric service
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen and separate table space; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Drywall, block, and plaster walls; Not furnished; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer in unit with hookups on the main floor; Water heater

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $45,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.08%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,480
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3694 Kenyon Ave	0.71mi	2/1.5	840 (+13%)	15mo	$97,300	$116	31
3731 Lyndale Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	840 (+13%)	16mo	$143,000	$170	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $20,402
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.19×
• Total profit: $78,019
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21205

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.9%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$461
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $331	+0% $316	+5% $300	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $261	+0% $316	+5% $370	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $327	base $316	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 Orchard Ridge Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,420	$1.39	45d	1	0.33mi
3727 Bonview Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	540	$1,199	$2.22	25d	1	0.59mi
3902 Erdman Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	16d	1	0.72mi
1401 N Potomac St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	19d	1	0.94mi
1323 N Kenwood Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	45d	1	1.09mi
5305 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	679	$1,565	$2.30	3d	1	1.12mi
3344 E Baltimore St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	545	$1,250	$2.29	45d	1	1.23mi
4408 Bowleys Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	682	$1,439	$2.11	4d	1	1.23mi
4358 Shamrock Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	550	$1,150	$2.09	45d	1	1.25mi
3410 Belair Rd Unit 2/B Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	742	$1,225	$1.65	5d	1	1.28mi
4901 Gunther Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,120	$1.51	3d	1	1.30mi
201 S Conkling St Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	740	$1,500	$2.03	3d	2	1.34mi
4222 Shamrock Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	25d	1	1.41mi
3905 Bank St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0–3.0	909	$2,350	$2.58	3d	20	1.47mi
500 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	520	$1,200	$2.31	5d	1	1.47mi
5551 Force Rd Apt E Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	525	$975	$1.86	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $461 · $5,532/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricestatus $45,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2025-12-29
    listed $55,000 Active
16. 2025-12-16
    historical $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − HOA: −$5,532
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$868
• After-tax cash flow: $2,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 13,013
• Household income: $43,176
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 966.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 16% White 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.03%
• Current HPI: 244.1345
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.88%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Coming Soon $55,000 BRIGHT MLS