1412 Dwight Dr · Geistown, PA 15904

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,861 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1967 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ENJOY THE CONVENIENCE OF ONE FLOOR LIVING. .. this 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick ranch home nestled in the heart of Richland Township provides everything that buyers are looking for in their next residence. The home features foyer; spacious living room with woodburning fireplace, brick accent wall, large picture window, and hardwood floor; dining room with sliding door to the rear patio plus hardwood floor; and kitchen with appliances. In addition, there are family room with panelled walls, hardwood floor, and sliding door to the rear patio; full bath; and 3 bedrooms with ample closet/storage and hardwood floor. The partially finished lower level includes 3/4 bath and rec room with panelled walls

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level / ranch-style; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Below-grade finished area (basement) approximately 600; Built year not specified; Foundation details not specified
• Exterior features: Patio; Rectangular lot; City street frontage; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Built-in features; Master suite on main level; Full, partially finished basement; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-352/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#332 in PA, #2,915 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Richland SD (suburban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #54 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Richland El Sch (math 57% / reading 71%, grade B, #289 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 811 students, 34% FRL); Richland Hs (math 56% / reading 73%, grade B-, #66 of 437 statewide, top 15%, 715 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $185,000 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-35,847
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-33,412
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15904

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,625/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $204,811

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $30	+0% $-29	+5% $-89	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-102	+0% $-29	+5% $44	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $24	base $-29	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Sunapee Dr Johnstown, PA	3.0	2.5	2087	$1,850	$0.89	45d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $210,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,625 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,625 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,625
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland SD
• NCES district ID: 4220250
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,705
• Composite: 54.72/100
• National rank: #1322
• State rank: #54 of 539 in PA

Livability — Geistown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #2915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $210,000 CSMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,625 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.