953 Prestonwood Ln · Keene, TX 76059

$238,709

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2025 6,011 sqft lot Est $244k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR -Watermill Collection at Ashton Home Place Newlin plan This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of $600; Association management: Vision Communities; Association fees cover full use of facilities and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Carbon monoxide detectors; Fire alarm; Smoke detectors; Other security features
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Curbs; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Property is not attached; Smart home features included
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2025
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on the main level with dual sinks
• Flooring: Carpet; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; 5 total rooms; Levels: One

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-748/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Keene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#249 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $207,253 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
988 Prestonwood Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	7mo	$244,849	$161	92
985 Prestonwood Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	6mo	$238,599	$157	92
1949 Autumn Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	3mo	$243,499	$160	85
1937 Autumn Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	6mo	$245,849	$162	84
1944 Autumn Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	7mo	$245,999	$162	83
1204 Honeysuckle Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-2%)	5mo	$319,900	$213	72
965 Prestonwood Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	3mo	$259,399	$151	69
989 Prestonwood Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	7mo	$242,499	$141	65
1945 Autumn Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	3mo	$253,399	$147	59
1940 Autumn Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-14%)	8mo	$232,999	$179	59
1936 Autumn Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	8mo	$254,999	$148	57
1948 Autumn Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	7mo	$243,849	$142	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-42,591
• Equity at exit: $35,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,950
• Equity at exit: $20,639

Cash invested: $66,839 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76059

• Home prices YoY: -7.0%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$298 /mo · $3,581/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,151

Max offer price $229,685

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,677
• Closing costs: $7,161
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
961 Prestonwood Ln Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,245	$1.28	43d	1	0.02mi
27 Blue Star Dr #27 Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$925	$0.87	43d	1	0.94mi
204 Woodlawn Dr Keene, TX	4.0	3.0	1960	$1,950	$0.99	1d	1	1.00mi
804 Alaska St Keene, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,288	$1.07	1d	4	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,709 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,709 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,709 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,709 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,709 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,709 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,709 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,709 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $238,709 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,709 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,709 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,709 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,709 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    price $238,709
15. 2026-05-20
    status Active
16. 2026-03-20
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-09
    price $250,999
18. 2026-03-09
    status Active
19. 2026-01-16
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-06
    listed $243,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,371
• − Property taxes: −$3,581
• − Insurance: −$1,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,944
• Taxable loss: −$4,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,152
• After-tax cash flow: $403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Keene

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #5923

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keene, TX
• City population: 5,333
• Population (ZIP): 5,333

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Estonian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.86%
• Current HPI: 237.62
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $238,709 NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $250,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $243,999 NTREIS