18626 Serapis St · Fresno, TX 77545

$381,990

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,532 sqft · Land · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 $151/sqft · at area comps Est $391k · at est. $43/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18626 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. You don't want to miss all this gorgeous home has to offer! Call to schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 126 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $382k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.4% in Fresno — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $336,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,470
• List price: $381,990
• Delta: -2.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-49,525
• Equity at exit: $74,529

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-60,056
• Equity at exit: $64,017

Cash invested: $106,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,003
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$477 /mo · $5,730/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$739
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,396

Max offer price $381,990

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $227	+0% $95	+5% $-36	+10% $-168
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-43	+0% $95	+5% $234	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $193	base $95	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,498
• Closing costs: $11,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	44d	1	0.35mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	44d	1	1.17mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	21d	1	1.21mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	20d	1	1.33mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	44d	1	1.40mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	21d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18626 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. You don't want to miss all this gorgeous home has to offer! Call to schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $381,990 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18626 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. You don't want to miss all this gorgeous home has to offer! Call to schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-02
   price $438,970 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18626 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. You don't want to miss all this gorgeous home has to offer! Call to schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-02-13
   price $437,820 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18626 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. You don't want to miss all this gorgeous home has to offer! Call to schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-01-06
   listed $444,820 Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   LONG LAKE NEW CONSTRUCTION - Welcome home to 18626 Serapis Street located in the New Community of Olympia Fields and zoned to Fort Bend ISD. This floor plan features 5 bedrooms, 4 full baths, an expansive covered patio, and a spacious 2-car garage. You don't want to miss all this gorgeous home has to offer! Call to schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,397
• − Property taxes: −$5,730
• − Insurance: −$1,910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,376
• − Management: −$3,376
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$11,112
• Taxable loss: −$5,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $2,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $381,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $438,970 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $437,820 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $444,820 HARMLS