1931 Valleywood Trl · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1998 0.65 ac lot $147/sqft · 15% below area Est $170k · 15% under $183/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

Key facts

• Onsite restaurant
• Swimming pool
• 0.65 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIRE PLACE
• STORAGE BUILDING WITH A LOFT
• TUFF SHED WITH ELECTRICITY
• SWIMMING POOL
• ONSITE RESTAURANT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($77/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,003
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -14.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
177 Woodfern Gln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,106 (+12%)	8mo	$182,000	$165	70
126 Valleywood Gln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (+5%)	22mo	$168,999	$163	63
121 Candlelight Cv	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,106 (+12%)	2mo	$176,900	$160	62
1161 Valleywood Trl	0.65mi	2/2.0	986 (-0%)	9mo	$163,000	$165	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,769
• Equity at exit: $65,942

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $65,580
• Equity at exit: $102,241

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,749/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $144,900 Pending 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $144,900 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 214 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $144,900 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

19. 2026-05-04
    price $144,900 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

20. 2026-03-01
    price $149,900 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

21. 2026-03-01
    price $149,900 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

22. 2026-01-07
    price $154,500 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

23. 2026-01-07
    price $154,500 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

24. 2025-11-05
    price $164,500 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

25. 2025-10-28
    listed $164,900 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

26. 2025-10-28
    listed $164,500 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cottage style Holly Lake Ranch home is situated on about 1/2 acre and features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open kitchen/dining/living area and a wood burning fire place. There is a 24x15 carport, a10x12 storage building with a loft, and an 8x10 "Tuff Shed" with electricity. Holly Lake Ranch also offers amenities - swimming pool, fishing, parks, tennis and pickleball courts, onsite restaurant and more. Come see it today!

27. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus
28. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus
29. 2021-03-25
    listed $147,900
30. 2021-03-23
    listed $147,900
31. 2015-08-24
    soldstatus
32. 2015-08-14
    soldstatus
33. 2015-08-03
    listed $78,000
34. 1999-11-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,749 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,749 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,749
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$2,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $144,900 LAAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $144,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $149,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $149,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $154,500 GTAR
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $154,500 LAAR
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $164,500 LAAR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $164,900 LAAR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $164,500 GTAR
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2021-03-25 Listed $147,900 GTAR
• 2021-03-23 Listed $147,900 LAAR
• 2015-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-08-14 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2015-08-03 Listed $78,000 GTAR
• 1999-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,749 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.