12206 Fairhaven Ln · Conroe, TX 77356

$219,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1988 $99/sqft · 39% below area Est $360k · 39% under $103/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers a fantastic opportunity in a quiet, well-established, and highly desirable neighborhood known for its charm and beautiful surroundings. Nestled in a peaceful estate setting, the home is surrounded by well-kept properties, making it an attractive location for future value and long-term living. The house does require some work and updates, but it presents great potential for customization and added value. Whether you're an experienced investor looking for your next flip, a homeowner wanting to renovate and create your dream home, or a buyer seeking a solid investment property, this home has strong upside. The home is not fully completed and is best suited for a cash investor. With the right vision and improvements, this property can truly shine. Priced to sell “as-is,” it reflects an excellent chance to get into a great area at a competitive price. Don’t miss out on turning this hidden gem into something special!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988
• Listed 61 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,427 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,263
• List price: $219,500
• Delta: -39.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12206 Fairhaven Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,212 (0%)	1mo	$219,500	$99	97
3407 Fitzgerald Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,193 (-1%)	1mo	$335,000	$153	78
3713 Walden Estates Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,252 (+2%)	1mo	$464,000	$206	78
12018 Brightwood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	2,344 (+6%)	2mo	$445,000	$190	76
12014 Rainforest Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,116 (-4%)	3mo	$180,000	$85	74
3430 Willowrun Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,216 (+0%)	1mo	$365,000	$165	71
3307 Hemingway Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,271 (+3%)	2mo	$364,500	$161	69
7 Brookhaven Pt	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,191 (-1%)	2mo	$939,000	$429	64
11705 Marina View Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,050 (-7%)	3mo	$379,990	$185	63
11717 Marina View Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,344 (+6%)	3mo	$399,495	$170	62
3030 Hemingway Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,354 (+6%)	3mo	$325,000	$138	56
3218 W Woodchuck Rd W	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,983 (-10%)	1mo	$239,900	$121	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-56,860
• Equity at exit: $32,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-91,732
• Equity at exit: $18,978

Cash invested: $61,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax from tax record: −$517 /mo · $6,209/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,358

Max offer price $176,427

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-182	+0% $-244	+5% $-306	+10% $-368
Rent	-10% $-406	-5% $-325	+0% $-244	+5% $-163	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-188	base $-244	+0.5pp $-301	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,875
• Closing costs: $6,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	17d	1	0.23mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,699	$1.18	7d	1	0.80mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	24d	1	0.81mi
3804 Mystic Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1888	$2,100	$1.11	46d	1	1.25mi
3679 Windswept Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,000	$1.09	21d	1	1.38mi
3813 Breckenridge Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2850	$2,499	$0.88	7d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-04-17
   price $219,500 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   This property offers a fantastic opportunity in a quiet, well-established, and highly desirable neighborhood known for its charm and beautiful surroundings. Nestled in a peaceful estate setting, the home is surrounded by well-kept properties, making it an attractive location for future value and long-term living. The house does require some work and updates, but it presents great potential for customization and added value. Whether you're an experienced investor looking for your next flip, a homeowner wanting to renovate and create your dream home, or a buyer seeking a solid investment property, this home has strong upside. The home is not fully completed and is best suited for a cash investor. With the right vision and improvements, this property can truly shine. Priced to sell “as-is,” it reflects an excellent chance to get into a great area at a competitive price. Don’t miss out on turning this hidden gem into something special!

2. 2026-03-27
   listed $230,000 Active 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   This property offers a fantastic opportunity in a quiet, well-established, and highly desirable neighborhood known for its charm and beautiful surroundings. Nestled in a peaceful estate setting, the home is surrounded by well-kept properties, making it an attractive location for future value and long-term living. The house does require some work and updates, but it presents great potential for customization and added value. Whether you're an experienced investor looking for your next flip, a homeowner wanting to renovate and create your dream home, or a buyer seeking a solid investment property, this home has strong upside. The home is not fully completed and is best suited for a cash investor. With the right vision and improvements, this property can truly shine. Priced to sell “as-is,” it reflects an excellent chance to get into a great area at a competitive price. Don’t miss out on turning this hidden gem into something special!

3. 2025-11-26
   historical
4. 2025-07-02
   price $245,000
5. 2025-06-16
   listed $295,000 Active
6. 2024-04-27
   historical
7. 2024-01-13
   price $275,000
8. 2024-01-09
   price $285,000
9. 2023-08-29
   soldstatus
10. 2023-08-23
    listed $300,000 Active
11. 2022-07-14
    soldstatus
12. 2022-05-24
    soldstatus
13. 2013-11-07
    soldstatus
14. 2013-10-17
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2013-09-03
    status Pending
16. 2013-08-13
    status Pending, Continue to Show
17. 2013-08-03
    status Option Pending
18. 2013-07-13
    status Active
19. 2013-07-12
    historical
20. 2013-07-11
    status Active
21. 2013-07-03
    status Option Pending
22. 2013-06-25
    status Active
23. 2013-06-25
    historical
24. 2013-06-24
    status Active
25. 2013-06-19
    status Option Pending
26. 2013-06-13
    price $149,900
27. 2013-05-03
    price $154,900
28. 2013-04-01
    price $159,900
29. 2013-03-08
    listed $164,900 Active
30. 2009-07-28
    historical
31. 2009-01-27
    listed $169,900
32. 2008-09-19
    historical
33. 2008-03-19
    listed $188,000
34. 2008-01-30
    historical
35. 2007-07-20
    listed $199,900
36. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,209 · $517/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,209 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,295
• − Property taxes: −$6,209
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$6,385
• Taxable loss: −$6,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.8% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $219,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-23 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-09-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-07-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-07-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-06-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-06-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-06-13 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2013-05-03 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2013-04-01 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2013-03-08 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2009-07-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-01-27 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2008-09-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-03-19 Listed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2008-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-07-20 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,209 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.