2207 Buffalo Plains Dr Plan · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$204,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Montoya! This amazing brand new open concept home is every homeowners dream. With the classic white and black color concept, you're met with modern and cozy vibes. This home is on a very desired corner lot and walking distance to all our amenities. Give us a call to see this brand new home today!

Key facts

• Corner lot
• Listed 32 days

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WALKING DISTANCE TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $204,995

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan (2207 Buffalo Plains Dr)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory
• Exterior features: Plan home on Buffalo Plains Drive

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,715 total living area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,845 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.96%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,306
• Equity at exit: $30,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $56,492
• Equity at exit: $17,724

Cash invested: $57,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $204,995

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,249
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	4d	1	0.03mi
2185 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,925	$1.35	4d	1	0.27mi
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	4d	1	0.28mi
2221 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$3,235	$1.49	4d	1	0.33mi
2170 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$3,235	$1.49	4d	1	0.37mi
2130 Christina St Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,925	$1.35	4d	1	0.38mi
1653 Wagonwheel Dr Fort Lupton, CO	4.0	3.0	2046	$2,795	$1.37	13d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,995 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,995 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,995 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,995 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $204,995 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,995 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,995 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,995 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $204,995 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,995 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,995 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,995 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,995 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,995 Active 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,475
• − Management: −$2,475
• − Depreciation: −$5,963
• Taxable income: $4,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $6,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new, move-in-ready manufactured home boasts modern design and excellent condition, with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate its curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Add smart home features — Improves both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B