2801 Chancellorsville Dr #1117 · Tallahassee, FL 32312

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Condo public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2004 $658/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/2 solarium; incredible incentives- 2% seller contributions "FLEX DOLLARS" can be used for closing costs, pay HOA dues, etc; Additional $2,000 in seller closing cost assistance if use on site lender; new floor coverings (carpet & ceramic tile), paint, and full appliance package (including microwave and washer/dryer); garages and storage units available for separate purchase; must use Seller's contract; deposit $2,500;

Key facts

• 1st floor
• Fitness center
• Updated hall bath

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR
• SOLARIUM
• STORAGE UNIT
• UPDATED HALL BATH
• TILE SHOWER
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee (annual): $7,890; HOA covers clubhouse, common areas, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, pool(s), and trash; Community amenities include gated access, pool, sidewalks, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Parking space(s)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Single-story; For sale
• Construction: No construction year provided
• Exterior features: In-ground community pool; Paved road; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (13 x 10); Bedroom 3 (14 x 10); Additional bedroom/other rooms (14 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: End unit (common wall: end unit); High ceilings; Window treatments; Split bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($440/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,690 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-25,684
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-28,366
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32312

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,774/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$658
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,370

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5326 Saint Ives Ln Tallahassee, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,495	$1.43	13d	1	0.76mi
2948 Whirlaway Trl Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,150	$1.54	21d	1	1.13mi
4843 Anhinga Ln Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	13d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $658 · $7,896/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $159,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $169,000
17. 2026-02-20
    listed $189,000 Active
18. 2022-06-04
    price $1,800
19. 2008-03-25
    soldstatus $195,000 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    3/2 solarium; incredible incentives- 2% seller contributions "FLEX DOLLARS" can be used for closing costs, pay HOA dues, etc; Additional $2,000 in seller closing cost assistance if use on site lender; new floor coverings (carpet & ceramic tile), paint, and full appliance package (including microwave and washer/dryer); garages and storage units available for separate purchase; must use Seller's contract; deposit $2,500;

20. 2007-01-01
    listed $195,600 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    3/2 solarium; incredible incentives- 2% seller contributions "FLEX DOLLARS" can be used for closing costs, pay HOA dues, etc; Additional $2,000 in seller closing cost assistance if use on site lender; new floor coverings (carpet & ceramic tile), paint, and full appliance package (including microwave and washer/dryer); garages and storage units available for separate purchase; must use Seller's contract; deposit $2,500;

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,774 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,774 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$3,774
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − HOA: −$7,896
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$393
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tallahassee, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,216
• Household income: $123,032
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 630.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.79%
• Current HPI: 240.8961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $169,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $189,000 CATRS
• 2022-06-04 Price Changed $1,800 RENT.
• 2008-03-25 Sold (MLS) $195,000 CATRS
• 2007-01-01 Listed $195,600 CATRS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,774 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.