1901 Dayton #176 · Durham, CA 95928

$157,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,109 sqft · Manufactured · 261 Days on market

Built 2022 $142/sqft · 148% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come home to Chico Mobile Country Club! This turnkey home features a split floorplan, fresh carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, separate laundry room, a bright kitchen with stainless appliances, and a carport as well as an additional driveway for parking. CMCC is a wonderful 55+ community that offers amenities for everyone from a sparkling pool & spa, fitness center, beauty salon, game room, car wash station, RV parking and more. Do not miss the chance to own this beautiful new home moments from downtown Chico

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Additional driveway
• Split floorplan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• CARPORT
• ADDITIONAL DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.6% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#714 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosedale Elementary (543 students, 53% FRL); Chico Junior High (928 students, 63% FRL); Chico High (math 39% / reading 78%, grade C, #223 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 1,905 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $158k implies a 1475% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.92%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,513
• List price: $157,500
• Delta: 147.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1901 Dayton Rd #32	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-5%)	20mo	$83,000	$79	69
1901 Dayton Rd #89	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-5%)	14mo	$55,000	$52	69
1901 Dayton Rd #61	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+6%)	23mo	$69,500	$59	62
1901 Dayton #116	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	944 (-15%)	8mo	$64,500	$68	60
1901 Dayton Rd #108	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	15mo	$47,000	$49	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,838
• Equity at exit: $23,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $20,729
• Equity at exit: $13,618

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95928

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $157,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $333	+0% $279	+5% $224	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $130	-5% $204	+0% $279	+5% $353	+10% $428
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $319	base $279	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 Pomona Ave Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	881	$1,845	$2.09	15d	1	1.08mi
1041 W 9th St Apt C Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	45d	1	1.20mi
47 Cobblestone Dr Chico, CA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,205	$1.96	15d	1	1.21mi
435 Maple St Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1125	$1,800	$1.60	45d	1	1.26mi
412 Maple St Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,800	$2.14	22d	1	1.28mi
415 Maple St Unit D Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1125	$1,300	$1.16	45d	1	1.29mi
1505 W 3rd St Unit C Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1377	$1,550	$1.13	45d	1	1.29mi
1445 W 3rd St Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,375	$1.83	15d	2	1.31mi
532 W 14th St Unit 20 Chico, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	15d	1	1.31mi
1020 Ivy St Chico, CA	4.0	1.0	800	$2,250	$2.81	45d	1	1.33mi
390 Ash St Unit 4 Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1176	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	1.36mi
1033 W 5th St Chico, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1375	$2,595	$1.89	45d	1	1.38mi
305 Ash St Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	45d	1	1.41mi
406 Walnut St Unit Walnut St unit 4 Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	45d	1	1.41mi
831 W 5th St Chico, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,395	$1.60	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $157,500 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $157,500 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,500 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,500 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,500 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,500 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $157,500 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,500 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $157,500 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $157,500 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $157,500 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $157,500 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,500 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,500 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,500 Active 240 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $157,500 Active 239 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    price $157,500 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Come home to Chico Mobile Country Club! This turnkey home features a split floorplan, fresh carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, separate laundry room, a bright kitchen with stainless appliances, and a carport as well as an additional driveway for parking. CMCC is a wonderful 55+ community that offers amenities for everyone from a sparkling pool & spa, fitness center, beauty salon, game room, car wash station, RV parking and more. Do not miss the chance to own this beautiful new home moments from downtown Chico

18. 2026-01-09
    price $160,000 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Come home to Chico Mobile Country Club! This turnkey home features a split floorplan, fresh carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, separate laundry room, a bright kitchen with stainless appliances, and a carport as well as an additional driveway for parking. CMCC is a wonderful 55+ community that offers amenities for everyone from a sparkling pool & spa, fitness center, beauty salon, game room, car wash station, RV parking and more. Do not miss the chance to own this beautiful new home moments from downtown Chico

19. 2025-10-03
    listed $165,000 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Come home to Chico Mobile Country Club! This turnkey home features a split floorplan, fresh carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, separate laundry room, a bright kitchen with stainless appliances, and a carport as well as an additional driveway for parking. CMCC is a wonderful 55+ community that offers amenities for everyone from a sparkling pool & spa, fitness center, beauty salon, game room, car wash station, RV parking and more. Do not miss the chance to own this beautiful new home moments from downtown Chico

20. 2025-09-30
    historical
21. 2025-06-30
    price $169,900
22. 2025-03-11
    listed $179,900 Active
23. 2018-05-18
    soldstatus $10,000 Closed Sale
24. 2018-05-15
    status Pending Sale
25. 2018-05-02
    price $10,000
26. 2018-03-30
    price $11,500
27. 2018-03-12
    status Active
28. 2018-03-04
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2018-02-23
    listed $13,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AO · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$2,255
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable income: $985
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$236
• After-tax cash flow: $3,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608370
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 46.45/100
• National rank: #2443
• State rank: #117 of 517 in CA

Livability — Durham

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #714
• US rank: #21351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 41,860
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,409
• Household income: $64,949
• Rent vs Own: 57.6% rent · 42.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3612.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -313.43%
• Current HPI: 251.1819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1111.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $157,500 CRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $169,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $179,900 CRMLS
• 2018-05-18 Sold (MLS) $10,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-05-02 Price Changed $10,000 CRMLS
• 2018-03-30 Price Changed $11,500 CRMLS
• 2018-03-12 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2018-03-04 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2018-02-23 Listed $13,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $128 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.