4431 Owens Rd · Cheboygan, MI 49721

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1995 2.00 ac lot $86/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: other/unspecified
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Built with other/unspecified construction materials; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Approximately 2.0-acre lot; Lot dimensions reported as 87,120 (units not specified)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Cheboygan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#251 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cheboygan Area Schools (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #307 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Cheboygan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cheboygan County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $85,380 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,000
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -58.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4431 Owens Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,104 (0%)	0mo	$90,000	$82	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-8,367
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,619
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49721

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $318/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $138	+0% $111	+5% $84	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $77	+0% $111	+5% $144	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $135	base $111	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

3. 2026-05-13
   price $94,900 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

4. 2026-05-12
   price $94,900 144-char remark
5. 2026-05-06
   listed $99,900 Active 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

6. 2026-05-06
   listed $99,900 Active 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

7. 2014-05-30
   soldstatus $67,500

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Totally remodeled 3-bedroom ranch with new well, septic, furnace, floor coverings, paint, driveway, light fixtures and much more. You must see this property!! Possible land contract with 20% down and good credit.

8. 2011-09-09
   listed $67,500

   Show marketing remark (213 chars)

   Totally remodeled 3-bedroom ranch with new well, septic, furnace, floor coverings, paint, driveway, light fixtures and much more. You must see this property!! Possible land contract with 20% down and good credit.

9. 2007-05-03
   soldstatus $21,000
10. 1995-06-01
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $318 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$572/yr (+$48/mo · 179.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$318
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$820
• − Management: −$820
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable loss: −$263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$63
• After-tax cash flow: $1,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheboygan Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2608910
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,751
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6590
• State rank: #307 of 540 in MI

Livability — Cheboygan

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #6261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,937

Population outlook (Cheboygan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,773 people
• By 2030: 22,545 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 19,526 · -17.9%
• By 2050: 16,547 · -30.4%
• By 2075: 11,263 · -52.6%
• By 2100: 7,290 · -69.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 8% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheboygan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 33.8% · R 64.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.7pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+32.1 2012: R+10.9 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.70%
• Current HPI: 219.6018
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-18 Sold (MLS) $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-05-30 Sold (MLS) $67,500 WWMLS
• 2011-09-09 Listed $67,500 WWMLS
• 2007-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $318 · -32.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.