165 Springville Rd Unit A · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$749,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1992 0.41 ac lot $633/sqft · 16% below area Est $931k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this hidden gem nestled in the heart of Hampton Bays! This secluded, ranch-style home, set on a private flag lot, is a tranquil retreat offering 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The property's additional feature is a detached artist studio, perfect for unleashing your creativity or simply enjoying some peaceful solitude. With ample space available, it's an ideal spot to add a pool for those warm summer days. Experience the charm of living on the south side of Hampton Bays, where stunning beaches and a plethora of amenities are just a stone's throw away. Enjoy the easy access to Tiana Bay Beach, the local marina, and the vibrant town center. This home is a sanctuary of privacy and comfort, yet conveniently located close to all the area has to offer. Discover the perfect balance of seclusion and community in this exceptional property. Your tranquil oasis awaits, take action today!

Key facts

• Private flag lot
• Vibrant town center
• Local marina

Tags

• PRIVATE FLAG LOT
• DETACHED ARTIST STUDIO
• EASY ACCESS TO TIANA BAY BEACH
• LOCAL MARINA
• VIBRANT TOWN CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $749k).
• Recommended offer: $659k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,506/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($659k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $575k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $659,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.92%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $930,945
• List price: $749,000
• Delta: -19.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Flocee Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,109 (-6%)	16mo	$800,000	$721	70
2 Marinea Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+6%)	14mo	$1,090,000	$865	60
12 Hampton Bays Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+12%)	2mo	$967,500	$733	58
25 Seaside Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-1%)	15mo	$812,500	$691	54
3 Elm St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+1%)	16mo	$735,000	$613	42
5 Mineola Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-5%)	10mo	$715,000	$638	41
14 Washington Ave	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+10%)	22mo	$750,000	$577	39
47 King St	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,012 (-14%)	12mo	$840,000	$830	38
52 Springville Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+12%)	21mo	$720,000	$545	32
4 Poplar St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (+12%)	22mo	$735,000	$552	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $79,061
• Equity at exit: $111,678

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $491,252
• Equity at exit: $64,760

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,846/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,996
• Net cashflow: $2,356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,524

Max offer price $749,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.17mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	24d	1	0.29mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.37mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	18d	1	0.48mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.63mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	0.70mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.74mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	0.90mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	43d	1	0.92mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	0.92mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	0.95mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	1.09mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	43d	1	1.12mi
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	43d	1	1.21mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	17d	1	1.28mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	10d	1	1.42mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $749,000 909-char remark

   Show marketing remark (909 chars)

   Welcome to this hidden gem nestled in the heart of Hampton Bays! This secluded, ranch-style home, set on a private flag lot, is a tranquil retreat offering 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The property's additional feature is a detached artist studio, perfect for unleashing your creativity or simply enjoying some peaceful solitude. With ample space available, it's an ideal spot to add a pool for those warm summer days. Experience the charm of living on the south side of Hampton Bays, where stunning beaches and a plethora of amenities are just a stone's throw away. Enjoy the easy access to Tiana Bay Beach, the local marina, and the vibrant town center. This home is a sanctuary of privacy and comfort, yet conveniently located close to all the area has to offer. Discover the perfect balance of seclusion and community in this exceptional property. Your tranquil oasis awaits, take action today!

2. 2026-01-06
   listed $799,000 Active 909-char remark

   Show marketing remark (909 chars)

   Welcome to this hidden gem nestled in the heart of Hampton Bays! This secluded, ranch-style home, set on a private flag lot, is a tranquil retreat offering 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The property's additional feature is a detached artist studio, perfect for unleashing your creativity or simply enjoying some peaceful solitude. With ample space available, it's an ideal spot to add a pool for those warm summer days. Experience the charm of living on the south side of Hampton Bays, where stunning beaches and a plethora of amenities are just a stone's throw away. Enjoy the easy access to Tiana Bay Beach, the local marina, and the vibrant town center. This home is a sanctuary of privacy and comfort, yet conveniently located close to all the area has to offer. Discover the perfect balance of seclusion and community in this exceptional property. Your tranquil oasis awaits, take action today!

3. 2022-01-21
   soldstatus $575,000
4. 1998-07-14
   soldstatus $106,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,846 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,252 · $771/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,406/yr (+$284/mo · 58.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 92% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $114,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$5,846
• − Insurance: −$8,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,126
• − Management: −$9,126
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable income: $17,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,168
• After-tax cash flow: $24,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+603.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $575,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,846 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.