Cedar Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$359,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily · 396 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Gathering room
• Welcoming foyer
• Covered lanai

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COVERED LANAI
• GATHERING ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 4364 Washington Place Ave, Immokalee, FL 34142; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $359,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan: Cedar; New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1662

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,173/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-36,413
• Equity at exit: $86,065

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-14,225
• Equity at exit: $89,667

Cash invested: $100,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,342

Max offer price $340,662

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $-9	+0% $-134	+5% $-258	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-384	-5% $-259	+0% $-134	+5% $-8	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-42	base $-134	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,998
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4390 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2060	$3,295	$1.60	25d	1	0.12mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,400	$2.69	25d	1	0.41mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$2,800	$2.40	25d	1	0.47mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,100	$2.57	25d	1	0.47mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,500	$2.65	25d	1	0.49mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	25d	1	0.50mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	15d	1	0.93mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	25d	1	1.03mi
5474 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,650	$1.30	25d	1	1.16mi
5574 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,250	$1.38	23d	1	1.21mi
5573 Cobalto Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	15d	1	1.27mi
5573 Cobalto Way Unit 5573 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	15d	1	1.27mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	25d	1	1.27mi
5688 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	15d	1	1.34mi
5360 Brin Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	1088	$2,495	$2.29	25d	1	1.34mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	12d	1	1.34mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	15d	1	1.38mi
5716 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,300	$1.19	25d	1	1.38mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	25d	1	1.40mi
5657 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1981	$2,400	$1.21	15d	1	1.40mi
5661 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	15d	1	1.40mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	25d	1	1.42mi
5309 Beckton Rd Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,395	$1.17	25d	1	1.42mi
5639 Argento Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	25d	1	1.43mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	13d	1	1.47mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	23d	1	1.48mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $359,990 Active 396 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,990 Active 393 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,990 Active 392 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,990 Active 391 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,990 Active 390 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,990 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,990 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,990 Active 383 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $359,990 Active 382 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,990 Active 377 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 376 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,990 Active 375 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $359,990 Active 374 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,165
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$3,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,046
• − Management: −$3,046
• − Depreciation: −$10,472
• Taxable loss: −$7,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B