40 County Road 3577 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$209,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 2018 0.48 ac lot $131/sqft · 16% below area Est $250k · 16% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 2018, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,600 sq ft of living space on a generous 20,909 sq ft lot. Constructed on a pier and beam foundation with durable Hardie board siding, the home features a well-designed split floor plan with spacious common areas, a dedicated laundry room, and a defined foyer. The kitchen connects to an open dining and living area, providing flow throughout. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and full bath. Outdoor features include a fully fenced yard and a covered carport. Located in an unrestricted area with access to public water and sewer.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Defined foyer
• Hardie board siding

Tags

• PIER AND BEAM FOUNDATION
• HARDIE BOARD SIDING
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• DEFINED FOYER
• OPEN DINING AND LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,234 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,955
• List price: $209,500
• Delta: -16.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 County Road 3558	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (+1%)	1mo	$199,900	$123	73
288 County Road 3554	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+7%)	4mo	$159,950	$94	60
875 County Road 3550	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,780 (+11%)	14mo	$245,000	$138	41
10850 Plum Grove Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+3%)	20mo	$270,000	$163	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-41,842
• Equity at exit: $31,237

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-41,473
• Equity at exit: $18,114

Cash invested: $58,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,513/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $182,694

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-92	+0% $-152	+5% $-211	+10% $-270
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-219	+0% $-152	+5% $-85	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-98	base $-152	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,375
• Closing costs: $6,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	24d	1	0.76mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.77mi
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,749	$1.03	0d	7	1.06mi
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	24d	1	1.11mi
1176 Road 5102 Cleveland, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	45d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,500 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,500 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,500 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,500 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,500 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,500 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,500 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,500 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,500 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,500 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,500 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,500 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,500 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,500 Active 177 DOM
15. 2025-12-05
    listed $209,500 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    Built in 2018, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,600 sq ft of living space on a generous 20,909 sq ft lot. Constructed on a pier and beam foundation with durable Hardie board siding, the home features a well-designed split floor plan with spacious common areas, a dedicated laundry room, and a defined foyer. The kitchen connects to an open dining and living area, providing flow throughout. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and full bath. Outdoor features include a fully fenced yard and a covered carport. Located in an unrestricted area with access to public water and sewer.

16. 2021-07-23
    historical
17. 2021-07-05
    status Active
18. 2021-06-27
    status Pending
19. 2021-06-12
    status Option Pending
20. 2021-04-01
    historical
21. 2021-04-01
    listed $159,900 Active
22. 2020-12-26
    listed $172,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,513 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,834 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,735
• − Property taxes: −$3,513
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$6,095
• Taxable loss: −$5,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,308
• After-tax cash flow: $-513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $209,500 HARMLS
• 2021-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-07-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-06-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-01 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2021-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-12-26 Listed $172,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,513 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.