ALDER Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$219,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily · 582 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't let the square footage number fool you, the open design of the one-story Alder floor plan shows how a well thought out space can feel bright and airy, while serving all the needs of the home buyer. The huge island kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room - making it the perfect space to gather when entertaining. The creative use of space in the Alder spotlights a spacious primary suite privately situated on one side of the home, while the two other secondary bedrooms are on the other side. This design offers some versatility in how the secondary bedrooms can be used - possibly a home office or nursery could be some options for the these rooms.

Key facts

• Open design
• Covered patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN DESIGN
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $219,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,540.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-860/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 582 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $193,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 582 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,540
• List price: $219,990
• Delta: -9.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16862 Short Pines Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	5mo	$200,000	$150	71
16691 Lonely Pines Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	10mo	$209,900	$158	71
16902 Needlepoint Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	11mo	$239,900	$173	69
16764 Lonely Pines Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+8%)	5mo	$219,000	$158	66
14409 Sugar Pines Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+8%)	3mo	$200,000	$144	64
14127 Carly Pines Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+8%)	6mo	$199,900	$143	64
16785 Lonely Pines Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+10%)	3mo	$184,900	$131	62
14416 Sugar Pines Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+12%)	4mo	$199,000	$138	58
13923 Great Pines Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+11%)	8mo	$199,900	$140	54
14206 W Pine Heart Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+10%)	11mo	$209,900	$148	53
14170 Granger Pointe Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+11%)	0mo	$227,940	$160	48
14162 Granger Pointe Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+11%)	0mo	$214,590	$150	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-43,381
• Equity at exit: $36,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-40,979
• Equity at exit: $21,057

Cash invested: $68,191 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,277
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,653/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $233,168

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,885
• Closing costs: $7,306
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	1d	13	0.19mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	43d	1	1.12mi
17892 Brown Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	19d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-10-21
   listed $219,990 Active 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   Don't let the square footage number fool you, the open design of the one-story Alder floor plan shows how a well thought out space can feel bright and airy, while serving all the needs of the home buyer. The huge island kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room - making it the perfect space to gather when entertaining. The creative use of space in the Alder spotlights a spacious primary suite privately situated on one side of the home, while the two other secondary bedrooms are on the other side. This design offers some versatility in how the secondary bedrooms can be used - possibly a home office or nursery could be some options for the these rooms.

2. 2024-04-19
   listed $219,990 Active 665-char remark

   Show marketing remark (665 chars)

   Don't let the square footage number fool you, the open design of the one-story Alder floor plan shows how a well thought out space can feel bright and airy, while serving all the needs of the home buyer. The huge island kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room - making it the perfect space to gather when entertaining. The creative use of space in the Alder spotlights a spacious primary suite privately situated on one side of the home, while the two other secondary bedrooms are on the other side. This design offers some versatility in how the secondary bedrooms can be used - possibly a home office or nursery could be some options for the these rooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,642
• − Property taxes: −$3,653
• − Insurance: −$1,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$7,085
• Taxable loss: −$5,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Grangerland, TX, is in good condition with a good layout and open design. It has a good roof, exterior, and interior walls, and is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance in bathrooms.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality for entertaining guests.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance in bathrooms. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality for entertaining guests. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-21 Listed $219,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-19 Listed $219,990 Zillow