653 Bunker Hill Rd · Fate, TX 75189

$316,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,923 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2022 8,756 sqft lot $165/sqft · 15% below area Est $372k · 15% under $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 653 Bunker Hill Road in the highly desirable Williamsburg Community, a 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,923 square feet of comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday living and easy entertaining. This charming home features a striking exterior elevation with stone accents and a welcoming covered front porch that immediately enhances its curb appeal. Inside, you’ll find a spacious open-concept floor plan that creates a bright, airy feel and allows the living, dining, and kitchen areas to flow seamlessly together. Perfect for gathering with family and friends. The landscaped yard and inviting curb appeal make this home stand out from the moment you arrive. Conveniently located in close proximity to Lupe Garcia Elementary and Ursula Rakow Middle School, as well as the main cross roads, you’ll enjoy easy access in and out of the neighborhood. Residents of Williamsburg enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with access to a clubhouse, resort-style swimming pools, playgrounds, a fitness center, scenic hiking and biking trails, and tranquil catch-and-release fishing ponds. With quick access to Interstate 30 and close proximity to shopping, dining, and H-E-B, this home combines convenience with community living.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Stone accents
• Landscaped yard

Tags

• STONE ACCENTS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO INTERSTATE 30
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.3% in Fate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#246 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Rockwall ISD (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #83 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1288 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,069 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.54%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,038
• List price: $316,500
• Delta: -14.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
710 Fort Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,862 (-3%)	0mo	$318,000	$171	78
762 Fort Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,862 (-3%)	0mo	$331,000	$178	74
745 John Adams Ct	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,061 (+7%)	2mo	$345,000	$167	72
316 Jefferson Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,771 (-8%)	1mo	$315,000	$178	68
224 Wakefield Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (-5%)	2mo	$340,000	$186	66
734 Fort Ln	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,069 (+8%)	2mo	$359,900	$174	64
292 Jefferson Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,014 (+5%)	3mo	$389,500	$193	63
402 Pleasant Hill Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (-5%)	3mo	$363,490	$199	56
634 Jamestown Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,038 (+6%)	2mo	$330,000	$162	49
312 Pleasant Hill Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+11%)	2mo	$389,490	$182	46
237 Jefferson Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,185 (+14%)	3mo	$325,000	$149	45
304 Pleasant Hill Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+11%)	4mo	$359,990	$168	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-84,338
• Equity at exit: $47,191

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-134,012
• Equity at exit: $27,365

Cash invested: $88,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1288
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,660
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,432/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,948

Max offer price $244,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-230	-5% $-319	+0% $-409	+5% $-499	+10% $-588
Rent	-10% $-601	-5% $-505	+0% $-409	+5% $-313	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-329	base $-409	+0.5pp $-491	+1.0pp $-574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,125
• Closing costs: $9,495
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
547 Delaware Rd Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,150	$1.24	25d	1	0.07mi
727 Fort Ln Fate, TX	4.0	2.0	2140	$2,450	$1.14	44d	1	0.29mi
710 John Adams Ct Fate, TX	4.0	2.0	2153	$2,300	$1.07	44d	1	0.31mi
758 Musket St Fate, TX	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,400	$1.29	44d	1	0.35mi
545 Declaration Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,490	$1.22	44d	1	0.41mi
436 Baltimore Ave Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,250	$1.28	44d	1	0.42mi
324 Revolution Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2081	$2,450	$1.18	21d	1	0.47mi
562 Jamestown Ln Fate, TX	4.0	2.0	2071	$3,100	$1.50	13d	1	0.55mi
206 Pleasant Hill Ln Fate, TX	4.0	3.0	2596	$2,645	$1.02	13d	1	0.64mi
206 Pleasant Hill Ln Fate, TX	4.0	3.0	2596	$2,645	$1.02	7d	1	0.64mi
508 Hunt Farms Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	2555	$2,650	$1.04	3d	1	0.75mi
495 Chandler Ct Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,200	$1.31	25d	1	0.78mi
129 Griffin Ave Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,375	$1.17	0d	1	0.88mi
496 Oak Hills Ln Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,175	$1.28	25d	1	0.90mi
126 Wilmington Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1799	$2,200	$1.22	25d	1	0.93mi
527 Embargo Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,495	$1.36	12d	1	1.10mi
426 George Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	2064	$2,395	$1.16	25d	1	1.28mi
4315 Hudson St Rockwall, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,395	$1.38	44d	1	1.28mi
217 Baldwin Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,195	$1.35	19d	1	1.29mi
2625 Fargo Pl Rockwall, TX	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,990	$1.53	44d	1	1.30mi
312 Eden Dr Fate, TX	4.0	2.5	2425	$2,699	$1.11	0d	1	1.34mi
716 Blakelys Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2609	$2,800	$1.07	44d	1	1.35mi
2056 Riverbirch Ln Rockwall, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,075	$1.40	44d	1	1.35mi
2056 Riverbirch Ln Rockwall, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,025	$1.37	12d	1	1.35mi
2056 Riverbirch Ln Rockwall, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,025	$1.37	3d	1	1.35mi
341 Wentworth Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,340	$1.27	25d	1	1.36mi
264 Callaghan Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,921	$1.27	0d	1	1.37mi
307 Eden Dr Fate, TX	4.0	2.5	2129	$2,395	$1.12	0d	1	1.37mi
219 Jenkinson Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,789	$1.12	44d	1	1.47mi
227 Jenkinson Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,300	$1.15	17d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $316,500 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $316,500 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $316,500 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $316,500 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,500 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,500 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   status $316,500 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $316,500 Active Option Contract 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $316,500 Active Option Contract 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $316,500 Active Option Contract 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on market $316,500 Active Option Contract 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $316,500 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,500 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $316,500 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,500 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $316,500 1264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1264 chars)

    Welcome to 653 Bunker Hill Road in the highly desirable Williamsburg Community, a 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,923 square feet of comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday living and easy entertaining. This charming home features a striking exterior elevation with stone accents and a welcoming covered front porch that immediately enhances its curb appeal. Inside, you’ll find a spacious open-concept floor plan that creates a bright, airy feel and allows the living, dining, and kitchen areas to flow seamlessly together. Perfect for gathering with family and friends. The landscaped yard and inviting curb appeal make this home stand out from the moment you arrive. Conveniently located in close proximity to Lupe Garcia Elementary and Ursula Rakow Middle School, as well as the main cross roads, you’ll enjoy easy access in and out of the neighborhood. Residents of Williamsburg enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with access to a clubhouse, resort-style swimming pools, playgrounds, a fitness center, scenic hiking and biking trails, and tranquil catch-and-release fishing ponds. With quick access to Interstate 30 and close proximity to shopping, dining, and H-E-B, this home combines convenience with community living.

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $320,000 Active 1264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1264 chars)

    Welcome to 653 Bunker Hill Road in the highly desirable Williamsburg Community, a 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,923 square feet of comfortable living with a functional layout designed for everyday living and easy entertaining. This charming home features a striking exterior elevation with stone accents and a welcoming covered front porch that immediately enhances its curb appeal. Inside, you’ll find a spacious open-concept floor plan that creates a bright, airy feel and allows the living, dining, and kitchen areas to flow seamlessly together. Perfect for gathering with family and friends. The landscaped yard and inviting curb appeal make this home stand out from the moment you arrive. Conveniently located in close proximity to Lupe Garcia Elementary and Ursula Rakow Middle School, as well as the main cross roads, you’ll enjoy easy access in and out of the neighborhood. Residents of Williamsburg enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with access to a clubhouse, resort-style swimming pools, playgrounds, a fitness center, scenic hiking and biking trails, and tranquil catch-and-release fishing ponds. With quick access to Interstate 30 and close proximity to shopping, dining, and H-E-B, this home combines convenience with community living.

18. 2026-03-07
    historical
19. 2026-02-05
    price $320,000
20. 2025-12-23
    price $324,000
21. 2025-12-10
    price $326,000
22. 2025-11-26
    price $328,000
23. 2025-09-11
    price $330,000
24. 2025-07-25
    listed $335,000 Active
25. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2022-08-04
    status Pending
27. 2022-07-08
    listed $381,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,432 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,792 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,729
• − Property taxes: −$5,432
• − Insurance: −$1,582
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$9,207
• Taxable loss: −$10,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,513
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837650
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $88,800
• Composite: 49.82/100
• National rank: #1952
• State rank: #83 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fate

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #5864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fate, TX
• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $316,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $324,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $326,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $328,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $335,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-08-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-08 Listed $381,490 NTREIS

Property tax history

+66.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,432 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.