10821 Toddville Rd · Chance, MD 21821

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1972 0.50 ac lot $81/sqft · 49% below area Est $118k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this half acre property near the water! There is an existing 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, with electric, septic & a well in the heart of Deal Island offering the opportunity to make the best of coastal country living! Tucked on a quiet street and not in a flood zone, this property is ideally located near Deal Island Beach, multiple marinas, public boat ramps, and abundant hunting grounds and wildlife management areas—perfect for outdoor enthusiasts. It includes several sheds for added storage. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or a year-round retreat, this home offers incredible potential at a price point that leaves room to customize and create your ideal coastal escape. No HOA.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking with six spaces total
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric hot water; Electric cooling units; Oil heating
• Home design: Manufactured property (single wide); Modular/manufactured construction; Architectural shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Single wide manufactured home; Permanent foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Shed
• Exterior features: Water-oriented property on Tangier Sound (bay frontage); Ramp to main level / no stairs (accessible); Shed on property; Above-grade and below-grade other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove; Country-style, eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Window air conditioning units; Oil fuel for heating; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Tub/shower; Ceiling fan(s); Combination kitchen and living area; Entry-level bedroom; Traditional floor plan; Country-style kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Carpeted areas

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.16%
• DSCR: 4.48
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,243
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -49.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $98,178
• Equity at exit: $54,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.5%
• Equity multiple: 15.15×
• Total profit: $237,725
• Equity at exit: $116,567

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $374/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $1,028

Break-even live

Break-even rent $554

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM

   Show marketing remark (725 chars)

   Come check out this half acre property near the water! There is an existing 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, with electric, septic & a well in the heart of Deal Island offering the opportunity to make the best of coastal country living! Tucked on a quiet street and not in a flood zone, this property is ideally located near Deal Island Beach, multiple marinas, public boat ramps, and abundant hunting grounds and wildlife management areas—perfect for outdoor enthusiasts. It includes several sheds for added storage. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or a year-round retreat, this home offers incredible potential at a price point that leaves room to customize and create your ideal coastal escape. No HOA.

5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $60,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-05-07
    status Pending 691-char remark
13. 2026-05-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Come check out this half acre property near the water! There is an existing 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, with electric, septic & a well in the heart of Deal Island offering the opportunity to make the best of coastal country living! Tucked on a quiet street and not in a flood zone, this property is ideally located near Deal Island Beach, multiple marinas, public boat ramps, and abundant hunting grounds and wildlife management areas—perfect for outdoor enthusiasts. It includes several sheds for added storage. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or a year-round retreat, this home offers incredible potential at a price point that leaves room to customize and create your ideal coastal escape. No HOA.

14. 2026-05-04
    listed $60,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Come check out this half acre property near the water! There is an existing 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, with electric, septic & a well in the heart of Deal Island offering the opportunity to make the best of coastal country living! Tucked on a quiet street and not in a flood zone, this property is ideally located near Deal Island Beach, multiple marinas, public boat ramps, and abundant hunting grounds and wildlife management areas—perfect for outdoor enthusiasts. It includes several sheds for added storage. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or a year-round retreat, this home offers incredible potential at a price point that leaves room to customize and create your ideal coastal escape. No HOA.

15. 2026-04-30
    listed $60,000 Active 691-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    historical $60,000 691-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $374 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$140/yr (+$12/mo · 37.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$374
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $12,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,908
• After-tax cash flow: $9,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chance

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #24063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chance, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $60,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $374 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.