2674 Cotton Gin Rd · Uhland, TX 78640

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2017 0.52 ac lot $95/sqft · 47% below area Est $300k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2674 Cotton Gin Road, a modern single-family residence perfectly positioned in the rapidly growing Cotton Gin Estates of Uhland, Texas. Located within the Hays County portion of the city, this home offers the ideal balance of small-town charm and modern convenience just minutes from the vibrant hubs of Kyle, San Marcos, and South Austin. The interior features a spacious open-concept layout with ample natural light and contemporary finishes, providing a flexible floor plan suitable for a home office, gym, or guest quarters. The property includes a generous backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining under the Texas sky. Residents benefit from being within the highly-regarded Hays Consolidated Independent School District and enjoy close proximity to Uhland Elementary School. With easy access to TX-130 and I-35, this location provides a smooth commute to major regional employers like Tesla and Amazon, as well as the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. This home represents a premier opportunity to plant roots in one of Central Texas’s most promising growth corridors, offering peace and privacy without sacrificing urban amenities.

Key facts

• Peace and privacy
• Easy access to i-35
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO TX-130
• EASY ACCESS TO I-35
• PEACE AND PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.0% in Uhland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,000
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -46.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-21,342
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-26,571
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,303/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $202	+0% $157	+5% $112	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $82	+0% $157	+5% $232	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $198	base $157	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,414	$0.97	13d	1	0.65mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	44d	1	0.91mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	24d	1	0.91mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	24d	1	0.94mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	17d	1	0.96mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	2d	1	1.02mi
259 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,895	$1.22	24d	1	1.02mi
127 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,200	$1.09	18d	1	1.11mi
267 Sickle Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,995	$1.30	44d	1	1.20mi
250 Granary Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,799	$1.18	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $160,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    price $189,000 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Welcome to 2674 Cotton Gin Road, a modern single-family residence perfectly positioned in the rapidly growing Cotton Gin Estates of Uhland, Texas. Located within the Hays County portion of the city, this home offers the ideal balance of small-town charm and modern convenience just minutes from the vibrant hubs of Kyle, San Marcos, and South Austin. The interior features a spacious open-concept layout with ample natural light and contemporary finishes, providing a flexible floor plan suitable for a home office, gym, or guest quarters. The property includes a generous backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining under the Texas sky. Residents benefit from being within the highly-regarded Hays Consolidated Independent School District and enjoy close proximity to Uhland Elementary School. With easy access to TX-130 and I-35, this location provides a smooth commute to major regional employers like Tesla and Amazon, as well as the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. This home represents a premier opportunity to plant roots in one of Central Texas’s most promising growth corridors, offering peace and privacy without sacrificing urban amenities.

15. 2026-03-18
    price $220,000 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Welcome to 2674 Cotton Gin Road, a modern single-family residence perfectly positioned in the rapidly growing Cotton Gin Estates of Uhland, Texas. Located within the Hays County portion of the city, this home offers the ideal balance of small-town charm and modern convenience just minutes from the vibrant hubs of Kyle, San Marcos, and South Austin. The interior features a spacious open-concept layout with ample natural light and contemporary finishes, providing a flexible floor plan suitable for a home office, gym, or guest quarters. The property includes a generous backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining under the Texas sky. Residents benefit from being within the highly-regarded Hays Consolidated Independent School District and enjoy close proximity to Uhland Elementary School. With easy access to TX-130 and I-35, this location provides a smooth commute to major regional employers like Tesla and Amazon, as well as the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. This home represents a premier opportunity to plant roots in one of Central Texas’s most promising growth corridors, offering peace and privacy without sacrificing urban amenities.

16. 2026-03-09
    price $250,000 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Welcome to 2674 Cotton Gin Road, a modern single-family residence perfectly positioned in the rapidly growing Cotton Gin Estates of Uhland, Texas. Located within the Hays County portion of the city, this home offers the ideal balance of small-town charm and modern convenience just minutes from the vibrant hubs of Kyle, San Marcos, and South Austin. The interior features a spacious open-concept layout with ample natural light and contemporary finishes, providing a flexible floor plan suitable for a home office, gym, or guest quarters. The property includes a generous backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining under the Texas sky. Residents benefit from being within the highly-regarded Hays Consolidated Independent School District and enjoy close proximity to Uhland Elementary School. With easy access to TX-130 and I-35, this location provides a smooth commute to major regional employers like Tesla and Amazon, as well as the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. This home represents a premier opportunity to plant roots in one of Central Texas’s most promising growth corridors, offering peace and privacy without sacrificing urban amenities.

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $265,000 Active 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    Welcome to 2674 Cotton Gin Road, a modern single-family residence perfectly positioned in the rapidly growing Cotton Gin Estates of Uhland, Texas. Located within the Hays County portion of the city, this home offers the ideal balance of small-town charm and modern convenience just minutes from the vibrant hubs of Kyle, San Marcos, and South Austin. The interior features a spacious open-concept layout with ample natural light and contemporary finishes, providing a flexible floor plan suitable for a home office, gym, or guest quarters. The property includes a generous backyard perfect for outdoor entertaining under the Texas sky. Residents benefit from being within the highly-regarded Hays Consolidated Independent School District and enjoy close proximity to Uhland Elementary School. With easy access to TX-130 and I-35, this location provides a smooth commute to major regional employers like Tesla and Amazon, as well as the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. This home represents a premier opportunity to plant roots in one of Central Texas’s most promising growth corridors, offering peace and privacy without sacrificing urban amenities.

18. 2022-02-24
    soldstatus
19. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus
20. 2018-04-20
    soldstatus Sold 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Great new construction --Clayton Homes manufactured home. The home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, spacious living room, huge island kitchen with dining area, custom cabinetry, and all new appliances, large master with his/her sinks, nice garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Enjoy beautiful wide open views of the hill country! Make it home today!Restrictions: Yes

21. 2018-04-04
    status Pending 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Great new construction --Clayton Homes manufactured home. The home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, spacious living room, huge island kitchen with dining area, custom cabinetry, and all new appliances, large master with his/her sinks, nice garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Enjoy beautiful wide open views of the hill country! Make it home today!Restrictions: Yes

22. 2018-03-28
    historical
23. 2017-10-30
    listed $188,681
24. 2017-10-27
    listed $188,681 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Great new construction --Clayton Homes manufactured home. The home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, spacious living room, huge island kitchen with dining area, custom cabinetry, and all new appliances, large master with his/her sinks, nice garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. Enjoy beautiful wide open views of the hill country! Make it home today!Restrictions: Yes

25. 2016-07-12
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2016-06-07
    listed $49,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,303 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,303 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$5,303
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $2,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+281.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $189,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $220,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $265,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-20 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2018-04-04 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2018-03-28 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2017-10-30 Listed $188,681 CTXMLS
• 2017-10-27 Listed $188,681 Unlock MLS
• 2016-07-12 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2016-06-07 Listed $49,500 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,303 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.