13300 E Los Coches Rd #17 · Lakeside, CA 92021

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $307k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This bright and inviting home features a desirable split floor plan with the primary suite and den/office on one side and 2 guest bedrooms on the other. Enjoy vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and beautiful skylights in the living and dining areas. The open-concept living room includes a charming wood-burning fireplace and unique Clerestory windows that create more natural light while maintaining privacy. Fully fenced yard with low maintenance turf, Ideal for a small dog. This home blends cozy comfort with practical living in every detail.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Primary suite
• Natural light

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DEN OFFICE
• GUEST BEDROOMS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Monterey Mobile Lodge (community/park)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community pool; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Built-in range
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Built-in range; Has fireplace (living room)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.5% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,467/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.29%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13300 Los Coches Rd #114	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-3%)	10mo	$217,000	$140	86
13300 Los Coches Rd E #8	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+5%)	9mo	$225,000	$134	84
13450 Highway 8 Business Spc 16	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+1%)	3mo	$325,000	$201	83
13460 Highway 8 Business Spc 11	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-4%)	10mo	$295,000	$192	77
13450 Highway 8 Business #99	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-12%)	10mo	$330,000	$234	65
13217 Aurora Dr Spc 39	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-7%)	7mo	$339,900	$228	64
13162 Highway 8 Business SPC 2	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-1%)	7mo	$300,000	$189	63
13162 Highway 8 Business #79	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+1%)	11mo	$319,000	$197	57
13162 Highway 8 Business #201	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-7%)	10mo	$277,500	$186	48
13217 Aurora Dr #77	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (-15%)	11mo	$330,000	$243	42
13162 Highway 8 Business #200	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-15%)	2mo	$165,000	$121	37
13162 Highway 8 Business Spc 78	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-14%)	10mo	$252,000	$184	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $55,877
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $134,051
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,719/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $1,520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,628	-5% $1,574	+0% $1,520	+5% $1,467	+10% $1,413
Rent	-10% $1,246	-5% $1,383	+0% $1,520	+5% $1,657	+10% $1,794
Rate	-1.0pp $1,616	-0.5pp $1,569	base $1,520	+0.5pp $1,471	+1.0pp $1,421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8809 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	4.0	2.0	1350	$3,800	$2.81	0d	1	0.35mi
9092 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	3d	1	0.79mi
9094 Los Coches Rd Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$4,000	$3.33	0d	1	0.79mi
13893 Pinkard Way #84 El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1464	$3,200	$2.19	14d	1	1.14mi
2000 E Main St El Cajon, CA	3.0	1.5–2.5	1165	$3,300	$2.83	0d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 553-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $190,000 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,719
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,329
• − Management: −$3,329
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $16,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,867
• After-tax cash flow: $14,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $190,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2013): $1,719 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.