235 Twin Oaks Loop · Winston, OR 97496

$72,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1998 $61/sqft · 46% below area Est $132k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

Key facts

• Carport with shed
• Laundry room
• Large living room

Tags

• MANUFACTURED DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY BEDROOM
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH APPLIANCES
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• CARPORT WITH SHED

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $72,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$132,500) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.7% in Winston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Winston-Dillard SD 116 (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #56 of 58 in OR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $72k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.84%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,500
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: -45.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 SE Twin Oaks Loop	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	3mo	$132,500	$102	82
241 Twin Oaks Loop	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	4mo	$85,000	$66	81
751 SE Meadowood Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-6%)	0mo	$190,000	$170	77
891 SE Meadowood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,188 (0%)	18mo	$200,000	$168	77
265 SE Grape Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-9%)	3mo	$250,000	$231	65
81 SE Edwards Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	23mo	$305,000	$235	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $23,459
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $65,619
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97496

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $425/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $561

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $593	-5% $572	+0% $552	+5% $531	+10% $511
Rent	-10% $452	-5% $502	+0% $552	+5% $601	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $570	base $552	+0.5pp $533	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 SE Darrell Ave Winston, OR	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	44d	1	0.43mi
133 Rolling Hills Rd Roseburg, OR	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,900	$1.59	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $72,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $72,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-04-26
   price $72,000 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

4. 2026-04-11
   price $74,900 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

5. 2026-03-26
   price $77,500 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

6. 2026-03-14
   price $79,000 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

7. 2026-03-04
   price $81,500 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

8. 2026-02-27
   price $84,000 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

9. 2026-02-20
   price $88,500 648-char remark

   Show marketing remark (648 chars)

   Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

10. 2026-02-14
    price $89,000 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

11. 2026-01-25
    listed $91,000 Active 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    Cozy residence that's located in the 55+ Winston Twin Oaks Mobile Estates community! This manufactured double-wide home offers three bedrooms and 2 baths, with features including a spacious primary bedroom and bath, large living room, dining area, kitchen with appliances, laundry room, and a carport with shed. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, for $725 a month (there is an application process and set requirements to qualify, for future owner/tenant). Washer and dryer are included.This home is located close to shopping, dining, parks, and other facilities, as well as the Wildlife Safari. Schedule your viewing appointment, today!

12. 2007-07-18
    soldstatus $46,000 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    NICE FLOOR PLAN IN THIS CLEAN MFG. HOME LOCATED IN PARK. SALE WILL BE SUBJECT TO BUYER BEING QUALIFIED WITH PARK.

13. 2007-07-13
    historical 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    NICE FLOOR PLAN IN THIS CLEAN MFG. HOME LOCATED IN PARK. SALE WILL BE SUBJECT TO BUYER BEING QUALIFIED WITH PARK.

14. 2007-07-06
    listed $53,000 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    NICE FLOOR PLAN IN THIS CLEAN MFG. HOME LOCATED IN PARK. SALE WILL BE SUBJECT TO BUYER BEING QUALIFIED WITH PARK.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $425 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 64.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$425
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $5,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $5,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winston-Dillard SD 116
• NCES district ID: 4113490
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,944
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8682
• State rank: #56 of 58 in OR

Livability — Winston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winston, OR
• Population (ZIP): 7,557

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 341.9441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+35.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $72,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $74,900 RMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $77,500 RMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $79,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $81,500 RMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $84,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $88,500 RMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $89,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $91,000 RMLS
• 2007-07-18 Sold (MLS) $46,000 RMLS
• 2007-07-13 Delisted — RMLS
• 2007-07-06 Listed $53,000 RMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $425 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.