407 S KIESEL St · Bay City, MI 48706

$84,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 878 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1940 4,791 sqft lot $97/sqft · 11% below area Est $95k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this solid 1 1/2 story, 3 bedroom, 1 bath home conveniently located on Bay City's westside. Enjoy the freshly painted & the newer carpeted interior along with the cozy galley style applianced kitchen. 1st floor laundry & utility room. Long lasting & low maintenance metal roof, aluminum siding & vinyl windows. Step outside to the fenced yard perfect of kids, pets or entertaining. A great value for the price, so don't hesitate!

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Metal roof
• Fenced yard

Tags

• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD
• METAL ROOF
• ALUMINUM SIDING
• VINYL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.83%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,248
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -10.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 Raymond St	0.28mi	2/1.5	888 (+1%)	1mo	$150,000	$169	82
605 S Barclay St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	850 (-3%)	1mo	$100,000	$118	78
707 W Jenny St	0.11mi	2/1.0	792 (-10%)	8mo	$75,000	$95	72
313 S Alp St	0.08mi	2/2.0	981 (+12%)	1mo	$165,000	$168	72
201 N Warner St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	902 (+3%)	4mo	$95,000	$105	71
207 E Thomas St	0.37mi	2/1.0	920 (+5%)	9mo	$56,400	$61	67
304 Main St	0.62mi	2/1.0	891 (+2%)	2mo	$135,250	$152	67
608 S Williams St	0.41mi	2/1.0	943 (+7%)	5mo	$47,000	$50	65
613 S Wenona Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	992 (+13%)	0mo	$92,000	$93	62
604 S Barclay St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,003 (+14%)	1mo	$127,000	$127	59
1303 S Warner St	0.73mi	2/1.0	922 (+5%)	5mo	$74,500	$81	53
607 N Warner St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	925 (+5%)	9mo	$93,000	$101	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $23,895
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $69,347
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $639	-5% $615	+0% $591	+5% $567	+10% $543
Rent	-10% $473	-5% $532	+0% $591	+5% $650	+10% $708
Rate	-1.0pp $634	-0.5pp $612	base $591	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	44d	1	0.59mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.24mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	44d	1	1.45mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Check out this solid 1 1/2 story, 3 bedroom, 1 bath home conveniently located on Bay City's westside. Enjoy the freshly painted & the newer carpeted interior along with the cozy galley style applianced kitchen. 1st floor laundry & utility room. Long lasting & low maintenance metal roof, aluminum siding & vinyl windows. Step outside to the fenced yard perfect of kids, pets or entertaining. A great value for the price, so don't hesitate!

2. 2026-04-17
   status Active 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Check out this solid 1 1/2 story, 3 bedroom, 1 bath home conveniently located on Bay City's westside. Enjoy the freshly painted & the newer carpeted interior along with the cozy galley style applianced kitchen. 1st floor laundry & utility room. Long lasting & low maintenance metal roof, aluminum siding & vinyl windows. Step outside to the fenced yard perfect of kids, pets or entertaining. A great value for the price, so don't hesitate!

3. 2026-04-15
   status Pending 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Check out this solid 1 1/2 story, 3 bedroom, 1 bath home conveniently located on Bay City's westside. Enjoy the freshly painted & the newer carpeted interior along with the cozy galley style applianced kitchen. 1st floor laundry & utility room. Long lasting & low maintenance metal roof, aluminum siding & vinyl windows. Step outside to the fenced yard perfect of kids, pets or entertaining. A great value for the price, so don't hesitate!

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $84,900 Active 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Check out this solid 1 1/2 story, 3 bedroom, 1 bath home conveniently located on Bay City's westside. Enjoy the freshly painted & the newer carpeted interior along with the cozy galley style applianced kitchen. 1st floor laundry & utility room. Long lasting & low maintenance metal roof, aluminum siding & vinyl windows. Step outside to the fenced yard perfect of kids, pets or entertaining. A great value for the price, so don't hesitate!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,268 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $6,099
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $5,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.