2801 Golden Rain Rd #3 · Walnut Creek, CA 94595

$279,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Condo public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1965 $265/sqft · 41% below area Est $471k · 41% under $1383/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this peaceful Sequoia model, offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bath in a bright, comfortable setting with beautiful south-facing exposure and pleasant views. Natural light fills the living space throughout the day, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. This retreat has expansive windows that look out onto the private patio-an ideal spot to relax, enjoy the sunshine, have a cup of morning coffee or take in nature. The interior has been freshly painted, creating a move-in-ready feel throughout. Both bedrooms offer relaxation and charm, featuring plantation shutters that provide style and privacy. Experience resort style living with golf courses, pickleball, fitness center, swimming pools, hiking trails, clubs, classes and social activities. Abundant guest parking available for family and friends.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Expansive windows
• Pickleball

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• GOLF COURSES
• PICKLEBALL
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-837 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (43.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.1% in Walnut Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#113 in CA, #4,005 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Acalanes Union High (suburban): math 73% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #21 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Tice Creek (424 students, 4% FRL); Walnut Creek Intermediate (985 students, 13% FRL); Las Lomas High (math 66% / reading 83%, grade B+, #78 of 1,170 statewide, top 7%, 1,571 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $195k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,828 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.86%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,133
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -40.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-97,647
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.92×
• Total profit: $-150,061
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94595

• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$1,383
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,191

Max offer price $157,828

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-645	-5% $-741	+0% $-837	+5% $-934	+10% $-1,030
Rent	-10% $-1,085	-5% $-961	+0% $-837	+5% $-714	+10% $-590
Rate	-1.0pp $-697	-0.5pp $-766	base $-837	+0.5pp $-910	+1.0pp $-983

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1865 Golden Rain Rd #3 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	2.0	1301	$3,400	$2.61	16d	1	0.31mi
1910 Skycrest Dr #5 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	1054	$3,500	$3.32	0d	1	0.51mi
1918 Newell Ave Walnut Creek, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$5,200	$4.07	1d	1	0.86mi
1123 S Villa Way Unit 1 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	2.0	895	$2,995	$3.35	0d	1	0.89mi
1172 Saranap Ave Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	0d	1	0.98mi
74 Palana Ct #78 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	772	$3,150	$4.08	0d	1	1.04mi
207 Saranap Ave Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,950	$2.95	12d	1	1.06mi
1776 Botelho Dr Walnut Creek, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$2,995	$4.08	0d	3	1.32mi
1315 Alma Ave #223 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	741	$3,550	$4.79	25d	1	1.35mi
1310 Alma Ave Walnut Creek, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$2,395	$3.30	0d	1	1.35mi
1384 Oakland Blvd Walnut Creek, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$2,295	$3.48	0d	2	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,383 · $16,596/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $279,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Welcome to this peaceful Sequoia model, offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bath in a bright, comfortable setting with beautiful south-facing exposure and pleasant views. Natural light fills the living space throughout the day, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. This retreat has expansive windows that look out onto the private patio-an ideal spot to relax, enjoy the sunshine, have a cup of morning coffee or take in nature. The interior has been freshly painted, creating a move-in-ready feel throughout. Both bedrooms offer relaxation and charm, featuring plantation shutters that provide style and privacy. Experience resort style living with golf courses, pickleball, fitness center, swimming pools, hiking trails, clubs, classes and social activities. Abundant guest parking available for family and friends.

17. 2026-03-29
    listed $299,000 Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Welcome to this peaceful Sequoia model, offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bath in a bright, comfortable setting with beautiful south-facing exposure and pleasant views. Natural light fills the living space throughout the day, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. This retreat has expansive windows that look out onto the private patio-an ideal spot to relax, enjoy the sunshine, have a cup of morning coffee or take in nature. The interior has been freshly painted, creating a move-in-ready feel throughout. Both bedrooms offer relaxation and charm, featuring plantation shutters that provide style and privacy. Experience resort style living with golf courses, pickleball, fitness center, swimming pools, hiking trails, clubs, classes and social activities. Abundant guest parking available for family and friends.

18. 2013-11-12
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Super Sequoia w/outstanding view. south facing rear patio brings in wonderful afternoon light. Newly painted & carpeted w/custom laminate in both kitchen & bathroom. Laundry & carport just steps away. Bus service through entry. Lots of guest parking. A Winner!

19. 2013-10-07
    status Pending 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Super Sequoia w/outstanding view. south facing rear patio brings in wonderful afternoon light. Newly painted & carpeted w/custom laminate in both kitchen & bathroom. Laundry & carport just steps away. Bus service through entry. Lots of guest parking. A Winner!

20. 2013-09-30
    listed $195,000 New 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Super Sequoia w/outstanding view. south facing rear patio brings in wonderful afternoon light. Newly painted & carpeted w/custom laminate in both kitchen & bathroom. Laundry & carport just steps away. Bus service through entry. Lots of guest parking. A Winner!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,006
• − Management: −$3,006
• − HOA: −$16,596
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$14,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Acalanes Union High
• NCES district ID: 0601650
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 85% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $120,138
• Composite: 73.49/100
• National rank: #179
• State rank: #21 of 517 in CA

Livability — Walnut Creek

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #4005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walnut Creek, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 90,740
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,988
• Household income: $100,552
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -710.17%
• Current HPI: 360.6365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+43.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $279,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-29 Listed $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-11-12 Sold (MLS) $195,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-10-07 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-09-30 Listed $195,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR