46 Wilderness Dr · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1987 0.26 ac lot Est $185k · 25% under $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated and exceptionally positioned, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a rare double lot with private water access and a boat ramp, just minutes from the Lake Panasoffkee Outlet River. Designed for both lifestyle and functionality, the open living and dining spaces are filled with natural light and finished with new flooring and modern updates throughout. The kitchen has been fully reimagined with new cabinetry and quartz countertops, while a dedicated media room adds flexible living space ideal for entertaining or everyday use. An oversized screened-in porch extends the living area outdoors, offering privacy and year-round enjoyment. Enjoy a peaceful setting with quick access to The Villages, as well as Florida's west coast for boating, fishing, dining, beaches, and natural springs. Double lot. Full renovation. Water access. A rare opportunity that delivers location, upgrades, and lifestyle in one property. All information taken from the tax record, and while deemed reliable, cannot be guaranteed.

Key facts

• Private water access
• Dedicated media room
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• PRIVATE WATER ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• DEDICATED MEDIA ROOM
• OVERSIZED SCREENED-IN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 0.26 acres; No waterfront; Residential zoning; Property type: Residential, Manufactured Home; Living area reported as 1,568 sq ft; building area 2,288 sq ft
• HOA & community: Rivers Edge Estates HOA — $70 monthly (required); Pets allowed: Cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (Double wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Other construction materials; Shingle roof; Other roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Wall/Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,580 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.33%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,024
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2506 CR 405	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	13mo	$90,000	$57	60
3786 CR 405n	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	2mo	$169,900	$118	55
3809 CR 405n	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-9%)	3mo	$70,000	$49	51
2634 CR 416n	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	0mo	$330,000	$244	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $50,869
• Equity at exit: $78,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $137,346
• Equity at exit: $134,698

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $138,000 Pending 108 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $138,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $138,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-02-13
   listed $138,000 Active
5. 2026-02-12
   listed $138,000 Active 1029-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

   Completely renovated and exceptionally positioned, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a rare double lot with private water access and a boat ramp, just minutes from the Lake Panasoffkee Outlet River. Designed for both lifestyle and functionality, the open living and dining spaces are filled with natural light and finished with new flooring and modern updates throughout. The kitchen has been fully reimagined with new cabinetry and quartz countertops, while a dedicated media room adds flexible living space ideal for entertaining or everyday use. An oversized screened-in porch extends the living area outdoors, offering privacy and year-round enjoyment. Enjoy a peaceful setting with quick access to The Villages, as well as Florida's west coast for boating, fishing, dining, beaches, and natural springs. Double lot. Full renovation. Water access. A rare opportunity that delivers location, upgrades, and lifestyle in one property. All information taken from the tax record, and while deemed reliable, cannot be guaranteed.

6. 2026-02-04
   historical
7. 2025-09-14
   price $140,000
8. 2025-08-29
   price $159,900
9. 2025-08-12
   price $169,900
10. 2025-07-21
    listed $175,000 Active
11. 2024-12-11
    soldstatus $98,300
12. 2024-12-02
    soldstatus $98,300 Closed
13. 2024-10-31
    status Pending
14. 2024-10-10
    listed $105,000 Active
15. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $120,000
16. 2021-11-12
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
17. 2021-08-21
    status Pending
18. 2021-08-04
    price $114,900
19. 2021-07-12
    status Active
20. 2021-07-05
    status Pending
21. 2021-06-15
    price $119,900
22. 2021-06-12
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus $87,000
24. 2020-07-13
    soldstatus $87,000
25. 2020-07-13
    listed $87,000
26. 2008-03-03
    soldstatus $70,000
27. 2006-04-18
    soldstatus $60,000
28. 1996-03-08
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $1,496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $3,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+193.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $138,000 Daytona MLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $98,300 Public Records
• 2024-12-02 Sold (MLS) $98,300 RACC
• 2024-10-31 Pending — RACC
• 2024-10-10 Listed $105,000 RACC
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-12 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-04 Price Changed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-15 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-12 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-13 Listed $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-13 Sold (MLS) $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,192 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.