21831 Mossy Field Ln · Houston, TX 77388

$220,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2006 2,556 sqft lot $173/sqft · at area comps Est $218k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming, well-maintained two-story traditional home with a welcoming front porch, offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The updated kitchen features a butcher block island and opens seamlessly to the family room, creating a functional and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully designed with great natural light throughout, the layout offers both comfort and practicality. A cleverly utilized under-stair space provides the perfect spot for a cozy pet area or additional storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home blends comfort, character, and functionality in a desirable setting.

Key facts

• Great natural light
• Butcher block island
• Cozy pet area

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• UNDER-STAIR SPACE
• COZY PET AREA
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-524/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,948 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,802
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: 1.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21831 Mossy Field Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,271 (0%)	0mo	$220,000	$173	96
4071 Mossy Place Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,199 (-6%)	6mo	$200,000	$167	79
21755 Mossy Field Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,199 (-6%)	9mo	$222,500	$186	79
3962 Mossy Place Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,388 (+9%)	3mo	$199,900	$144	74
3938 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+10%)	4mo	$229,500	$165	71
21531 Roseville Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-6%)	6mo	$190,000	$159	62
3927 Falvel Cove Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+13%)	4mo	$259,000	$181	53
3327 Haydee Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+5%)	8mo	$224,900	$168	52
21507 Meadowhill Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-6%)	2mo	$217,000	$183	50
3702 Acorn Way Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+13%)	6mo	$249,000	$174	49
3523 Nutwood Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-11%)	2mo	$190,000	$168	39
3326 Hartfield Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+14%)	6mo	$230,000	$158	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-44,390
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-65,242
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,573/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,135

Max offer price $212,291

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21771 Mossy Field Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1631	$2,150	$1.32	43d	1	0.03mi
4018 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1458	$1,960	$1.34	11d	1	0.18mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4242 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,210	$1.40	10d	1	0.25mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4246 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,990	$1.56	10d	1	0.25mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,178	$1.38	3d	1	0.25mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 424 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,966	$1.54	7d	1	0.25mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 2228 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,958	$1.53	3d	1	0.25mi
3402 Almondwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,795	$1.27	12d	1	0.62mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,536	$2.45	2d	29	0.67mi
3607 Nutwood Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1299	$2,399	$1.85	43d	1	0.71mi
3899 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,796	$1.56	12d	1	0.72mi
3869 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,774	$1.68	24d	1	0.72mi
4114 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,146	$2.22	2d	24	0.74mi
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	2d	67	1.16mi
2953 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,280	$2.29	2d	23	1.26mi
21330 N Tangle Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,836	$1.49	43d	1	1.37mi
4703 Owens Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,920	$1.16	19d	1	1.40mi
2555 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,941	$2.07	2d	12	1.42mi
5222 Farm to Market 2920 Unit SOSG Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,548	$1.32	12d	1	1.47mi
3223 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,739	$1.74	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Charming, well-maintained two-story traditional home with a welcoming front porch, offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The updated kitchen features a butcher block island and opens seamlessly to the family room, creating a functional and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully designed with great natural light throughout, the layout offers both comfort and practicality. A cleverly utilized under-stair space provides the perfect spot for a cozy pet area or additional storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home blends comfort, character, and functionality in a desirable setting.

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Charming, well-maintained two-story traditional home with a welcoming front porch, offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The updated kitchen features a butcher block island and opens seamlessly to the family room, creating a functional and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully designed with great natural light throughout, the layout offers both comfort and practicality. A cleverly utilized under-stair space provides the perfect spot for a cozy pet area or additional storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home blends comfort, character, and functionality in a desirable setting.

3. 2026-04-15
   listed $220,000 Active 657-char remark

   Show marketing remark (657 chars)

   Charming, well-maintained two-story traditional home with a welcoming front porch, offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The updated kitchen features a butcher block island and opens seamlessly to the family room, creating a functional and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Thoughtfully designed with great natural light throughout, the layout offers both comfort and practicality. A cleverly utilized under-stair space provides the perfect spot for a cozy pet area or additional storage. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home blends comfort, character, and functionality in a desirable setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$4,573
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$997
• After-tax cash flow: $474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $220,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,573 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.