3648 W Siebenthaler Ave · Fort McKinley, OH 45406

$89,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1944 5,998 sqft lot $118/sqft · 55% above area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to this Great starter home or a Great income producing opportunity to add to your portfolio! This 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home offers a practical floor plan ideal for long term rental or value add strategies. The layout features defined living space, well sized bedrooms and updates include new flooring throughout, new HVAC, kitchen counters, new appliances, Fully remodeled bathroom and fresh paint throughout. Low maintenance yard, and manageable footprint help keep operating costs down. Conveniently located near major routes, employment centers, shopping, and dining supporting consistent rental demand. A solid option for investors or a great starter home. Home being sold as is.

Key facts

• Practical floor plan
• Defined living space
• New hvac

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING OPPORTUNITY
• PRACTICAL FLOOR PLAN
• DEFINED LIVING SPACE
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW HVAC
• KITCHEN COUNTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Traditional single-family home; One level
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Shingle roof; Aluminum siding; Window features listed as other; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 12 x 10
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Primary bedroom approximately 12 x 9; Second bedroom approximately 12 x 9
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the main level; Primary bathroom listed as other
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heating
• Interior features: Full basement; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($918 rent vs $89k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,248
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 55.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3942 Beatty Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0	768 (+2%)	0mo	$33,110	$43	62
2612 N Gettysburg Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	780 (+3%)	3mo	$28,200	$36	59
3538 Pittsburg Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	864 (+15%)	3mo	$109,900	$127	59
3704 Evansville Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	680 (-10%)	20mo	$55,000	$81	58
3901 Falmouth Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	832 (+10%)	11mo	$115,000	$138	57
3678 Wilmore St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	864 (+15%)	3mo	$131,900	$153	51
2131 Wesleyan Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0	720 (-4%)	13mo	$89,900	$125	46
2200 Kensington Dr	0.74mi	2/1.0	840 (+11%)	8mo	$75,000	$89	38
2200 Falmouth Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	825 (+9%)	20mo	$87,000	$105	37
4288 Redonda Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	864 (+15%)	4mo	$125,000	$145	36
3748 Saint James Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+15%)	6mo	$92,500	$107	34
3738 Wilmore St	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	864 (+15%)	23mo	$62,500	$72	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-5,350
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,085
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45406

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $947/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $167	+0% $142	+5% $117	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $106	+0% $142	+5% $178	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $165	base $142	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3711 Pittsburg Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	45d	1	0.21mi
2675-2727 N Gettysburg Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$600	$0.92	16d	22	0.31mi
2675-2727 N Gettysburg Ave Unit 2727-22 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$600	$0.92	45d	1	0.31mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	4d	1	0.36mi
2501 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	605	$850	$1.40	45d	1	0.38mi
4113 Crest Dr Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$650	$1.00	45d	1	0.40mi
2414 Hancock Ave Unit 2418 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	45d	1	0.47mi
2408 Falmouth Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$950	$1.18	25d	1	0.47mi
3858 Haney Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	4d	1	0.50mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	5d	1	0.69mi
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	4d	1	0.70mi
4446 Waymire Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	0.82mi
2257 Hepburn Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$695	$1.16	45d	1	0.92mi
4425 Thompson Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	864	$1,150	$1.33	4d	1	0.94mi
1330 W Hillcrest Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	525	$825	$1.57	45d	1	0.97mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	45d	1	0.99mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	45d	1	1.03mi
5112 W Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	972	$700	$0.72	25d	1	1.04mi
2109 Victoria Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	5d	1	1.06mi
2002 Val Vista Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	23d	1	1.07mi
4629 Queens Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.10mi
1720 Kings Mill Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	975	$925	$0.95	25d	1	1.11mi
2014 Hickorydale Dr Unit 2016 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	45d	1	1.15mi
4365 Parkway Dr Trotwood, OH	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	45d	1	1.17mi
1982 Victoria Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	675	$700	$1.04	45d	1	1.17mi
3537 Otterbein Ave Unit d Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	45d	1	1.19mi
1934 Tennyson Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	675	$700	$1.04	45d	1	1.19mi
3311 Otterbein Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1004	$1,300	$1.29	13d	1	1.22mi
3813 Briar Pl Apt 9 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	25d	1	1.25mi
829 Uhrig Ave Unit 3 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	760	$875	$1.15	16d	1	1.25mi
1732 Harold Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	805	$925	$1.15	45d	1	1.29mi
3650 Otterbein Ave Unit 3650 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	4d	1	1.30mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	5d	1	1.30mi
1207 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1023	$825	$0.81	45d	1	1.30mi
3652 Otterbein Ave Unit 3652 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	4d	1	1.31mi
1203 W Fairview Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	806	$750	$0.93	45d	1	1.31mi
4278 Catalpa Dr Unit 4 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	45d	1	1.39mi
111 Bennington Dr Unit 1 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	800	$700	$0.88	45d	1	1.40mi
111 Bennington Dr Unit 4 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	45d	1	1.40mi
1008 W Fairview Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	1007	$800	$0.79	5d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   listing id $89,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 696-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $89,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $89,000 593-char remark
17. 2026-05-19
    price $89,000 696-char remark
18. 2026-01-22
    price $95,000 593-char remark
19. 2026-01-22
    price $95,000 696-char remark
20. 2025-12-20
    listed $105,000 Active 593-char remark
21. 2025-12-20
    listed $105,000 Active 696-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $947 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$947
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$881
• − Management: −$881
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$68
• After-tax cash flow: $1,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,991
• Household income: $41,796
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1504.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.75%
• Current HPI: 197.1302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $89,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-06-14 Listed $89,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $89,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $89,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $95,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $95,000 Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $105,000 Cincy MLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $105,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $947 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.