58 Brown Bear Hollow Rd · Northfork, WV 24868

$79,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1907 Fair condition 5,401 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this partially renovated 3-bedroom, 1-bath 2-story home located at 58 Brown Bear Hollow Road in Northfork, WV, in the heart of Southern West Virginia ATV country. Featuring approximately 1,248 sq ft, updated electrical, a metal roof, covered front porch, and back deck overlooking the creek, this property offers peaceful creekside living in a quiet mountain neighborhood. The home still needs finishing touches, plumbing, furnishings, and a heat source, making it a fantastic opportunity for investors, flippers, or ATV enthusiasts looking to create a custom getaway or income-producing short-term rental near the Hatfield & McCoy trail systems. Public water is availa

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Metal roof
• Creekside living

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• CREEKSIDE LIVING
• PUBLIC WATER AVAILABLE
• SEPTIC TANK IN PLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has a view; Lot is approximately 0.124 acres (level); Zoning: R; Directions: From Cherokee Road in Worth, WV, turn onto Brown Bear Hollow Road, 2nd house on the right.

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; No garage; Gravel parking surface
• Utilities: No water source specified; Septic tank for sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: Other); No cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Insulated windows; 6 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: No separate laundry information provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#354 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcdowell County Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #55 of 55 in WV (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kimball Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #350 of 377 statewide, top 95%, 159 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in McDowell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McDowell County population projected at -48% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.29%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-2,733
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $10,842
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24868

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $184	+0% $157	+5% $129	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $115	+0% $157	+5% $198	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $177	base $157	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 695-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,006
• − Management: −$1,006
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-story home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Metal roof may need inspection for leaks
• Major exterior siding — Siding shows significant wear and tear
• Major exterior paint — Paint is peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair siding — Improves structural integrity and appearance
• Both repair roof — Prevents leaks and enhances structural integrity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Metal roof may need inspection for leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Siding shows significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Paint is peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair siding — Improves structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both repair roof — Prevents leaks and enhances structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcdowell County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400810
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $23,725
• Composite: 16.18/100
• National rank: #9229
• State rank: #55 of 55 in WV

Livability — Northfork

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #26706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,070

Population outlook (McDowell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,405 people
• By 2030: 13,475 · -12.5%
• By 2040: 10,266 · -33.4%
• By 2050: 7,970 · -48.3%
• By 2075: 5,023 · -67.4%
• By 2100: 3,714 · -75.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McDowell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.1% · R 79.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -68.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+30.1 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.87%
• Current HPI: 90.3299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $79,000 BBOR