2954 Mt Carmel Rd · Camden, TN 38320

$69,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Built 2022 1.00 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large corner acre in the country, tiny home currently used as a weekend getaway, extra shed, lots of possibilities

Key facts

• Weekend getaway
• Tiny home
• Extra shed

Tags

• CORNER ACRE
• TINY HOME
• WEEKEND GETAWAY
• EXTRA SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#133 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Benton County (town): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #66 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $61,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.17%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $19,022
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $55,714
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38320

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $69,999

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $501	+0% $476	+5% $452	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $380	-5% $428	+0% $476	+5% $524	+10% $572
Rate	-1.0pp $512	-0.5pp $494	base $476	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   price $69,999
3. 2025-11-26
   listed $88,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,167
• − Management: −$1,167
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,175
• After-tax cash flow: $4,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Benton County
• NCES district ID: 4700240
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,587
• Composite: 24.24/100
• National rank: #7722
• State rank: #66 of 139 in TN

Livability — Camden

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #12196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,470

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,046 people
• By 2030: 14,425 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 13,296 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 12,298 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 10,347 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 8,594 · -42.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.9) · D 18.1% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.2pp · 2024: -62.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.9 2020: R+57.0 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+16.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.25%
• Current HPI: 233.3477
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $69,999 CWTAR
• 2025-11-26 Listed $88,000 CWTAR