8511 144th Ave E · Alderton, WA 98372

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2019 $109/sqft · 14% below area Est $139k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 2019 model, 2-bedroom plus den, 1.75-bath home located in desirable 55+ community, Lone Cedar in the Puyallup Valley. The open kitchen and dining area feature durable laminate flooring that continues through both bathrooms and the utility room for easy maintenance. Kitchen offers great cabinet and counter space too. Living room is bright and open with vaulted ceilings. The primary bedroom includes a private bath with a walk-in shower. There is also a second bedroom and full bath for guests. Plus a cozy bonus room provides flexible space for a home office, hobby room, or den. The utility room offers additional storage and exterior access. Outside, enjoy a cover

Key facts

• Private bath
• Covered carport
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COZY BONUS ROOM
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.5% in Alderton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#269 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $99k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.06%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,452
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -13.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8608 143rd Avenue Ct E #14	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (+11%)	4mo	$155,000	$126	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $31,836
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $102,639
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98372

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,796/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $792	+0% $758	+5% $724	+10% $690
Rent	-10% $599	-5% $678	+0% $758	+5% $837	+10% $916
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $788	base $758	+0.5pp $727	+1.0pp $695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7413 142nd Ave E Sumner, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	798	$1,999	$2.50	2d	6	0.75mi
3002 E Pioneer Puyallup, WA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	981	$2,245	$2.29	2d	32	0.92mi
7105 142nd Ave E Unit A Sumner, WA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,925	$1.67	24d	1	0.95mi
3107 E Main Ave Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$2,106	$2.19	2d	30	1.32mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    listed $135,000 Active
15. 2021-02-01
    soldstatus $99,000 Sold
16. 2021-01-04
    status Pending
17. 2020-10-03
    status Active
18. 2020-08-30
    status Pending
19. 2020-08-19
    status Pending Inspection
20. 2020-07-16
    price $110,000
21. 2020-06-19
    listed $120,000 Active
22. 2019-09-19
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold
23. 2019-09-03
    status Pending
24. 2019-07-02
    listed $124,900 Active
25. 2011-11-16
    soldstatus $22,000 Sold
26. 2011-08-16
    status Pending
27. 2011-05-12
    listed $22,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,796 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,796 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,796
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,636
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,833
• After-tax cash flow: $7,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner School District
• NCES district ID: 5308610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $76,138
• Composite: 61.86/100
• National rank: #1497
• State rank: #18 of 291 in WA

Livability — Alderton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #9357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alderton, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,012
• Household income: $98,152
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 871.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 6% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.81%
• Current HPI: 309.7871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+488.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-01 Sold (MLS) $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-03 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-16 Price Changed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-19 Listed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-19 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-03 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-02 Listed $124,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-16 Sold (MLS) $22,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-12 Listed $22,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+38.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,796 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.