11959 Noble Chase Path · Dade City, FL 33525

$296,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,326 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $127/sqft · 16% below area Est $353k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home highlights a modern open layout, seamlessly integrating a first-floor kitchen with a central island, a dining room and a welcoming family room with patio access. On the same level is a private owner's suite with an attached bathroom. Situated upstairs is a versatile loft for additional shared living space and four secondary bedrooms to provide restful retreats to family members and guests alike.

Key facts

• Central island
• First-floor kitchen
• Attached bathroom

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT
• PATIO ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-245/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1219 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 78d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,348 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,661
• List price: $296,000
• Delta: -16.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11974 Noble Chase Path	0.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-1%)	3mo	$330,990	$144	90
11990 Noble Chase Path	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-3%)	2mo	$325,000	$144	87
12030 Noble Chase Path	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,435 (+5%)	1mo	$306,000	$126	86
12022 Noble Chase Path	0.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-3%)	4mo	$329,990	$146	84
12058 Noble Chase Path	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-3%)	3mo	$324,990	$144	83
11994 Fallow Down Dr	0.10mi	5/3.0	2,077 (-11%)	1mo	$330,000	$159	74
11987 Fallow Down Dr	0.07mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+12%)	1mo	$350,000	$134	73
12013 Fallow Down Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0	2,077 (-11%)	3mo	$327,990	$158	73
12041 Fallow Down Dr	0.12mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+12%)	4mo	$354,990	$136	70
12014 Fallow Down Dr	0.11mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+12%)	4mo	$369,990	$142	69
11691 Adam Lee Way	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,260 (-3%)	3mo	$339,000	$150	68
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-10%)	20mo	$365,638	$175	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,176
• Equity at exit: $44,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,129
• Equity at exit: $25,593

Cash invested: $82,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 115 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 38.3 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $308,900 ($142/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1219
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,440/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $293,042

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $82	+0% $-20	+5% $-123	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-122	+0% $-20	+5% $81	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $55	base $-20	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,000
• Closing costs: $8,880
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11921 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,500	$1.02	77d	1	0.02mi
11913 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,250	$0.97	3d	1	0.03mi
11893 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,500	$1.02	77d	1	0.05mi
11877 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	109d	1	0.06mi
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	112d	1	0.09mi
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	140d	1	0.35mi
11708 Judicial Ct Dade City, FL	5.0	3.5	2609	$2,750	$1.05	3d	1	0.45mi
38396 Pindos Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,250	$1.23	3d	1	0.45mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,388	$1.20	0d	10	0.51mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	165d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $296,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   price $296,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   remarks 418-char remark
4. 2026-06-02
   listed $330,290 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,581
• − Property taxes: −$4,440
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,461
• − Management: −$2,461
• − Depreciation: −$8,611
• Taxable loss: −$5,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $1,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,630–$34,890 screening

This two-story home features a modern open layout with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace window blinds — Modern blinds can improve the home's rental appeal and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B