81 Mill St · Penns Grove, NJ 08069

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1940 5,001 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking to down size or a charming first home, this cozy cottage is just what you are looking for. With so many inclusions, you literally can just pack a bag and move right in. There are new thermopane windows, kitchen cabinets, carpeting, paint, ceiling tiles, dressers, and water heater. Also included, living room furniture, kitchen table and chairs, utensils, pots pans and dishes. All window treatments, wall fireplace in bedroom, lawn furniture and tools. For your summertime enjoyment there is central air and a small deck off living room to enjoy looking at the sun set over the river. Room for a garden, carport for your vehicle, jet skis, boat or other hobbies. This property is in the Penns Grove Marina District.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Attached carport
• Delaware river views

Tags

• DELAWARE RIVER VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• EXTERIOR ACCESS TO BASEMENT
• ATTACHED CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating fuel
• Home design: Detached property; Above-grade finished living area reported as 720 (source: assessor)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Lot approximately 50 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Kitchen; Partial, unfinished basement with outside entrance

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 6.0% in Penns Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#519 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Penns Grove-Carneys Point Regional School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #462 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $70k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.13%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,120
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Mill St	0.01mi	2/1.0	795 (+10%)	21mo	$156,000	$196	65
83 Willis Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	736 (+2%)	5mo	$140,000	$190	64
281 S Riverwalk	0.39mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	21mo	$150,000	$208	64
113 N Broad St	0.58mi	2/1.0	750 (+4%)	4mo	$161,000	$215	63
159 State St	0.34mi	2/1.0	785 (+9%)	18mo	$115,000	$146	54
21 N Smith Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	23mo	$60,000	$89	42
57 Cumberland Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	640 (-11%)	21mo	$160,000	$250	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $24,254
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $67,741
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08069

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $578	+0% $554	+5% $530	+10% $506
Rent	-10% $408	-5% $481	+0% $554	+5% $627	+10% $700
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $572	base $554	+0.5pp $536	+1.0pp $518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $69,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,500 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,500 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,500 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,500 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,500 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,500 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,500 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,500 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,500 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,500 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 331-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $74,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,491
• After-tax cash flow: $5,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penns Grove-Carneys Point Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3412840
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 11.98/100
• National rank: #9665
• State rank: #462 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Penns Grove

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #22190

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Penns Grove, NJ
• County: Salem County · 24,175 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 13,413
• Household income: $71,942
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 696.0

Population outlook (Salem County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,905 people
• By 2030: 57,351 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 51,837 · -13.5%
• By 2050: 46,356 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 36,452 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 28,907 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Salem

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.6% · R 58.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: 3.9pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+12.8 2016: R+15.4 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.07%
• Current HPI: 290.3853
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+38.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $74,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-08-30 Sold (MLS) $22,500 TREND
• 2013-08-30 Sold (MLS) $22,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-08-23 Pending — TREND
• 2013-08-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-07-29 Price Changed $29,000 TREND
• 2013-07-25 Price Changed $34,500 TREND
• 2013-07-09 Price Changed $38,000 TREND
• 2013-07-02 Relisted — TREND
• 2013-07-02 Price Changed $38,500 TREND
• 2013-07-01 Delisted — TREND
• 2013-06-04 Price Changed $39,000 TREND
• 2013-05-21 Price Changed $47,000 TREND
• 2013-05-01 Delisted — TREND
• 2013-04-15 Price Changed $49,000 TREND
• 2013-03-25 Price Changed $53,900 TREND
• 2013-01-11 Price Changed $55,000 TREND
• 2012-12-01 Price Changed $59,000 TREND
• 2012-11-06 Price Changed $67,500 TREND
• 2012-11-02 Price Changed $74,995 TREND
• 2012-10-12 Listed $79,995 TREND
• 2012-10-11 Relisted — TREND
• 2012-10-11 Listed $29,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-12 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-10-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-10-26 Listed $114,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,728 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.