The Caldwell Plan · Kimberly, AL 35091

$284,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,231 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Caldwell is great for those needing a first-floor owner's suite. The hub of this home is the centrally located family room, which is open to the kitchen and a covered rear porch. Single-level living can be easily achieved here because everything is just steps away, but a flexible second floor provides a bath and two additional bedrooms, a large loft, and options for a fourth bedroom, third bathroom, and media room.

Key facts

• Large loft
• Covered rear porch
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• FLEXIBLE SECOND FLOOR
• LARGE LOFT
• OPTIONS FOR FOURTH BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $284,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,245.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bryan Elementary School (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #194 of 627 statewide, top 32%, 681 students, 37% FRL); North Jefferson Middle School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 666 students, 52% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.81%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,245
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -5.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9327 Brunswick Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,237 (+0%)	2mo	$305,490	$137	96
9319 Brunswick Ave	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,231 (0%)	3mo	$294,595	$132	94
9323 Brunswick Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,372 (+6%)	4mo	$315,805	$133	79
9340 Brunswick Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,933 (-13%)	1mo	$288,625	$149	75
9312 Brunswick Ave	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,933 (-13%)	3mo	$275,995	$143	72
9316 Brunswick Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,565 (+15%)	4mo	$309,995	$121	65
9621 Meadow Ridge Pkwy	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,064 (-8%)	23mo	$325,000	$157	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $137,904
• Equity at exit: $270,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $426,455
• Equity at exit: $583,310

Cash invested: $84,069 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35091

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,575
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,504/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $241,875

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-196	-5% $-300	+0% $-403	+5% $-507	+10% $-611
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-490	+0% $-403	+5% $-316	+10% $-230
Rate	-1.0pp $-252	-0.5pp $-327	base $-403	+0.5pp $-481	+1.0pp $-560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,061
• Closing costs: $9,007
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Way Station Pl Kimberly, AL	4.0	3.0	2256	$2,200	$0.98	3d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $284,900 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $284,900 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    The Caldwell is great for those needing a first-floor owner's suite. The hub of this home is the centrally located family room, which is open to the kitchen and a covered rear porch. Single-level living can be easily achieved here because everything is just steps away, but a flexible second floor provides a bath and two additional bedrooms, a large loft, and options for a fourth bedroom, third bathroom, and media room.

16. 2026-02-05
    price $282,900 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    The Caldwell is great for those needing a first-floor owner's suite. The hub of this home is the centrally located family room, which is open to the kitchen and a covered rear porch. Single-level living can be easily achieved here because everything is just steps away, but a flexible second floor provides a bath and two additional bedrooms, a large loft, and options for a fourth bedroom, third bathroom, and media room.

17. 2025-12-16
    listed $280,900 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    The Caldwell is great for those needing a first-floor owner's suite. The hub of this home is the centrally located family room, which is open to the kitchen and a covered rear porch. Single-level living can be easily achieved here because everything is just steps away, but a flexible second floor provides a bath and two additional bedrooms, a large loft, and options for a fourth bedroom, third bathroom, and media room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,818
• − Property taxes: −$4,504
• − Insurance: −$2,299
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$8,734
• Taxable loss: −$10,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Kimberly

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #11415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kimberly, AL
• Population (ZIP): 3,632

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.37%
• Current HPI: 265.4636
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $284,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $282,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Listed $280,900 Zillow