119 S Lagoon St · Rockaway Beach, OR 97136

$449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1982 8,712 sqft lot $329/sqft · at area comps Est $439k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a private and quiet location of Rockaway Beach! The property features a 960 sqft shop with a woodstove. Newer cedar shingle siding and vinyl windows installed. Inside the house you'll find a beautiful brick hearth with a Fisher woodstove. Large .20 acre lot, which is made up of 5 city lots. Fully fenced private yard featuring a fire pit and hot tub. Property is located just blocks from public beach access. Showings are by appointment only. Call today for more details.

Key facts

• 960 sqft shop
• Hot tub
• Brick hearth

Tags

• 960 SQFT SHOP
• BRICK HEARTH
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• FIRE PIT
• HOT TUB
• PUBLIC BEACH ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $449k).
• Recommended offer: $395k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 6.6% in Rockaway Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $395,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.86%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,640
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: 2.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 S Quadrant St	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,410 (+3%)	6mo	$435,000	$309	78
123 S Ocean St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-4%)	8mo	$407,000	$311	76
126 N Ocean Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+7%)	7mo	$640,000	$440	75
1430 N Cedar Creek Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+3%)	10mo	$508,000	$361	73
407 S 2nd Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,327 (-3%)	6mo	$314,000	$237	73
115 N Miller St Unit 303 I	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-3%)	3mo	$43,250	$33	67
115 N Miller St #103	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-3%)	4mo	$32,000	$24	67
115 N Miller St Unit 103 I	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-3%)	4mo	$32,000	$24	66
115 N Miller St Unit 103 Trk H	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-3%)	8mo	$29,900	$23	63
115 N Miller St #103	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-3%)	8mo	$29,900	$23	63
247 S Dolphin St	0.32mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,272 (-7%)	9mo	$349,000	$274	58
633 N Pacific St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,514 (+11%)	3mo	$795,000	$525	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $52,957
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $207,665
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97136

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,672/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $1,976

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,499

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 N Dolphin St Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	2.0	1020	$6,000	$5.88	44d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $449,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $449,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $460,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $460,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $460,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $460,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $460,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a private and quiet location of Rockaway Beach! The property features a 960 sqft shop with a woodstove. Newer cedar shingle siding and vinyl windows installed. Inside the house you'll find a beautiful brick hearth with a Fisher woodstove. Large .20 acre lot, which is made up of 5 city lots. Fully fenced private yard featuring a fire pit and hot tub. Property is located just blocks from public beach access. Showings are by appointment only. Call today for more details.

16. 2026-04-03
    price $460,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a private and quiet location of Rockaway Beach! The property features a 960 sqft shop with a woodstove. Newer cedar shingle siding and vinyl windows installed. Inside the house you'll find a beautiful brick hearth with a Fisher woodstove. Large .20 acre lot, which is made up of 5 city lots. Fully fenced private yard featuring a fire pit and hot tub. Property is located just blocks from public beach access. Showings are by appointment only. Call today for more details.

17. 2026-02-07
    listed $473,000 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a private and quiet location of Rockaway Beach! The property features a 960 sqft shop with a woodstove. Newer cedar shingle siding and vinyl windows installed. Inside the house you'll find a beautiful brick hearth with a Fisher woodstove. Large .20 acre lot, which is made up of 5 city lots. Fully fenced private yard featuring a fire pit and hot tub. Property is located just blocks from public beach access. Showings are by appointment only. Call today for more details.

18. 2026-02-07
    listed $473,000 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath home located in a private and quiet location of Rockaway Beach! The property features a 960 sqft shop with a woodstove. Newer cedar shingle siding and vinyl windows installed. Inside the house you'll find a beautiful brick hearth with a Fisher woodstove. Large .20 acre lot, which is made up of 5 city lots. Fully fenced private yard featuring a fire pit and hot tub. Property is located just blocks from public beach access. Showings are by appointment only. Call today for more details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,672 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,684/yr (+$140/mo · 63.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥76°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$2,672
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable income: $17,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,164
• After-tax cash flow: $19,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56
• NCES district ID: 4108650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,437
• Composite: 41.68/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #62 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rockaway Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #4777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockaway Beach, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,422

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $460,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $460,000 OCMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $473,000 OCMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $473,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,672 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.