3765 Grass Valley Hwy #286 · North Auburn, CA 95602

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $164k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to desirable Rock Creek Senior Mobile Home Park #286! This home is truly move in ready and has been elegantly updated for you to enjoy. The kitchen has newer cabinets, granite countertops and appliances. Newer windows for energy efficiency and custom Hunter Douglas Blinds with ceiling fans in the bedrooms. Tankless water heater for added efficiency. The primary bathroom has been beautifully updated with a walk in shower, newer cabinets and granite counter tops. Peaceful front deck for enjoying your morning coffee or afternoon tea and visiting with friends. Plenty of room for your cars with the extended carport and a shed for storage. This home has been loving cared for and it shows

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Ceiling fans
• Energy efficiency

Tags

• NEWER CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• CUSTOM HUNTER DOUGLAS BLINDS
• CEILING FANS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 3765 Grass Valley Hwy #286, Auburn, CA 95602; Cross street: Dry Creek; Directions: Highway 49 to Rock Creek Mobile Home Park; go left at the stop sign, then right at the second street to about the middle of the road — house on the left.
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Master electric meter; Master gas meter; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 1981; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Metal skirting; OOFUQUA make
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing gas oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room; Dining and living room combined
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.6% in North Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#519 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.59%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,220
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #203	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	11mo	$188,000	$131	89
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #271	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	8mo	$149,000	$103	89
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #238	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	11mo	$139,000	$97	89
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #250	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	3mo	$165,000	$123	88
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #111	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+8%)	2mo	$130,000	$85	86
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #246	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+4%)	6mo	$227,500	$153	86
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #213	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+4%)	5mo	$132,000	$89	82
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #227	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	11mo	$165,000	$123	81
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #77	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+7%)	7mo	$176,000	$115	80
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #225	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+1%)	10mo	$135,000	$94	78
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #232	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	11mo	$160,000	$119	74
3765 Grass Valley Hwy #211	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	5mo	$140,000	$112	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,067
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $26,633
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95602

• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $411	+0% $356	+5% $301	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $210	-5% $283	+0% $356	+5% $429	+10% $501
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $396	base $356	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3713 Park Dr #4 Auburn, CA	1.0	1.0	900	$1,675	$1.86	13d	1	0.26mi
3711 Galena Dr #3 Auburn, CA	2.0	1.5	991	$1,850	$1.87	3d	1	0.29mi
3681 Galena Dr #2 Auburn, CA	2.0	1.5	991	$1,800	$1.82	8d	1	0.32mi
3633 Park Dr #2 Auburn, CA	2.0	1.0	922	$1,699	$1.84	3d	1	0.35mi
11325 Quartz Dr Auburn, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$2,069	$2.67	3d	10	0.41mi
3585 Sapphire Dr #4 Auburn, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	3d	1	0.42mi
11550 Garnet Way #2 Auburn, CA	2.0	1.5	966	$1,725	$1.79	8d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $159,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $1,850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$444
• After-tax cash flow: $3,827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — North Auburn

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #17512

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Auburn, CA
• County: Placer County · 390,510 people
• City population: 28,195
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,701
• Household income: $97,466
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 521.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -426.11%
• Current HPI: 257.0087
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B