422 Marilla St · Buffalo, NY 14220

$164,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1901 3,510 sqft lot $91/sqft · 38% below area Est $265k · 38% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 422 Marilla Street in the heart of South Buffalo! This classic old-style home offers 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with plenty of space and character throughout. The first and second floors provide comfortable living with generously sized rooms, while the partially finished attic offers excellent potential for a fifth bedroom, home office, or additional living space. Major mechanical updates include a newer furnace and hot water tank, providing peace of mind for years to come. The home also features a full basement for additional storage and a convenient one-car attached garage. Located in the South Buffalo neighborhood close to local amenities, parks, and shops.

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Newer furnace
• Full basement

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED ATTIC
• NEWER FURNACE
• HOT WATER TANK
• FULL BASEMENT
• ONE-CAR ATTACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,904
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -37.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Cantwell Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,889 (+4%)	3mo	$360,000	$191	70
289 Okell St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,560 (-14%)	5mo	$232,500	$149	62
1141 Mckinley Pkwy	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,854 (+2%)	6mo	$275,000	$148	62
1062 Tifft St	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,800 (-0%)	0mo	$180,000	$100	61
95 Aldrich Pl	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,568 (-13%)	1mo	$270,000	$172	59
37 Bloomfield Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,874 (+4%)	5mo	$225,000	$120	58
53 Choate Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,599 (-12%)	1mo	$198,000	$124	54
60 Woodside Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,568 (-13%)	7mo	$164,900	$105	53
29 Allegany St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,750 (-3%)	2mo	$229,900	$131	52
121 Aldrich Pl	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,620 (-10%)	8mo	$191,900	$118	51
1349 Mckinley Pkwy	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+6%)	3mo	$280,000	$146	49
133 Hollywood Ave	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (-9%)	6mo	$280,000	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,049
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $56,898
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $329	+0% $283	+5% $236	+10% $189
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $220	+0% $283	+5% $346	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $325	base $283	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	2d	1	0.42mi
21 Amber St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2112	$1,700	$0.80	2d	1	0.63mi
86 Edgewood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	2d	1	0.93mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	11d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $164,900 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $184,900 Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Welcome to 422 Marilla Street in the heart of South Buffalo! This classic old-style home offers 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with plenty of space and character throughout. The first and second floors provide comfortable living with generously sized rooms, while the partially finished attic offers excellent potential for a fifth bedroom, home office, or additional living space. Major mechanical updates include a newer furnace and hot water tank, providing peace of mind for years to come. The home also features a full basement for additional storage and a convenient one-car attached garage. Located in the South Buffalo neighborhood close to local amenities, parks, and shops.

16. 2025-07-22
    soldstatus $155,360
17. 2019-01-10
    soldstatus $61,000
18. 1995-10-30
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,152/yr (+$96/mo · 239.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$166
• After-tax cash flow: $3,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+245.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $184,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $155,360 Public Records
• 2019-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.