1848 W Mill Creek Rd · Lansing, NC 28693

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2001 0.50 ac lot Est $142k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Outdoorsman's paradise. .. If privacy is what you seek- this wooded half acre lot with nicely maintained home is for you. You will enjoy the large covered and screened front porch, wooden walkway and a detached outbuilding. With the creek sounds from below and the wildlife in the woods above-- you will know for sure you are in your mountain home. Home has good sized living room with bar seating, open to dining area and kitchen which is well equipped. Master bedroom suite on one end features a large bath with garden tub, ample closets and more. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath with tub/shower combination on opposite end. Outdoor firepit and outbuilding enhance the usability and enjoyment of this well-priced mountain home. Owner has enjoyed hunting from wooded area just above the home (see the wooden steps) Upgrades include a water softener system, brick underpinning, new well pump in 2019,well house w/ insulation, new electric hot water heater and more.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Picturesque backdrop
• Rustic storage shed

Tags

• COVERED SCREENED-IN PORCH
• RUSTIC STORAGE SHED
• MOVE-IN READY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE HOME
• GREAT DEAL OF PRIVACY
• PICTURESQUE BACKDROP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway with shared driveway access; No garage; Private parking available
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a one-level home
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Storage and shed(s); Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning unit(s); Heating options include electric, propane, radiant, and exhaust fan (see remarks)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.7% in Lansing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#514 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ashe County Schools (rural): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #53 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 360 students, 71% FRL); Ashe County Middle (math 58% / reading 57%, grade B, #64 of 475 statewide, top 14%, 440 students, 64% FRL); Ashe County High (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #248 of 535 statewide, top 48%, 792 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 46% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Ashe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Ashe County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $150k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,128
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1848 W Mill Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+6%)	1mo	$150,000	$141	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $24,618
• Equity at exit: $61,911

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $77,907
• Equity at exit: $91,313

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28693

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $236	+0% $184	+5% $132	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $123	+0% $184	+5% $245	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $222	base $184	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2020-10-01
   soldstatus $69,000 974-char remark

   Show marketing remark (974 chars)

   Outdoorsman's paradise. .. If privacy is what you seek- this wooded half acre lot with nicely maintained home is for you. You will enjoy the large covered and screened front porch, wooden walkway and a detached outbuilding. With the creek sounds from below and the wildlife in the woods above-- you will know for sure you are in your mountain home. Home has good sized living room with bar seating, open to dining area and kitchen which is well equipped. Master bedroom suite on one end features a large bath with garden tub, ample closets and more. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath with tub/shower combination on opposite end. Outdoor firepit and outbuilding enhance the usability and enjoyment of this well-priced mountain home. Owner has enjoyed hunting from wooded area just above the home (see the wooden steps) Upgrades include a water softener system, brick underpinning, new well pump in 2019,well house w/ insulation, new electric hot water heater and more.

5. 2020-10-01
   soldstatus $69,000

   Show marketing remark (974 chars)

   Outdoorsman's paradise. .. If privacy is what you seek- this wooded half acre lot with nicely maintained home is for you. You will enjoy the large covered and screened front porch, wooden walkway and a detached outbuilding. With the creek sounds from below and the wildlife in the woods above-- you will know for sure you are in your mountain home. Home has good sized living room with bar seating, open to dining area and kitchen which is well equipped. Master bedroom suite on one end features a large bath with garden tub, ample closets and more. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath with tub/shower combination on opposite end. Outdoor firepit and outbuilding enhance the usability and enjoyment of this well-priced mountain home. Owner has enjoyed hunting from wooded area just above the home (see the wooden steps) Upgrades include a water softener system, brick underpinning, new well pump in 2019,well house w/ insulation, new electric hot water heater and more.

6. 2020-06-22
   listed $72,900 974-char remark

   Show marketing remark (974 chars)

   Outdoorsman's paradise. .. If privacy is what you seek- this wooded half acre lot with nicely maintained home is for you. You will enjoy the large covered and screened front porch, wooden walkway and a detached outbuilding. With the creek sounds from below and the wildlife in the woods above-- you will know for sure you are in your mountain home. Home has good sized living room with bar seating, open to dining area and kitchen which is well equipped. Master bedroom suite on one end features a large bath with garden tub, ample closets and more. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath with tub/shower combination on opposite end. Outdoor firepit and outbuilding enhance the usability and enjoyment of this well-priced mountain home. Owner has enjoyed hunting from wooded area just above the home (see the wooden steps) Upgrades include a water softener system, brick underpinning, new well pump in 2019,well house w/ insulation, new electric hot water heater and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashe County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700210
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2737
• State rank: #53 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lansing

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #514
• US rank: #18836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,250

Population outlook (Ashe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,812 people
• By 2030: 24,852 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 22,518 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 20,113 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 15,295 · -40.7%
• By 2100: 11,065 · -57.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.5) · D 27.4% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.5 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+44.7 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.34%
• Current HPI: 161.697
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+105.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — HCMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — HCMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $150,000 HCMLS
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-01 Sold (MLS) $69,000 HCMLS
• 2020-06-22 Listed $72,900 HCMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $271 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.