TTM16763D Plan · Conroe, TX 77301

$76,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Manufactured · 655 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bedroom single wide with Great room and Island chef's kitchen. Come and see this beautiful and modern home with beamed ceilings and so much more! Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED

Key facts

• Beamed ceilings
• Listed 654 days

Tags

• ISLAND CHEF'S KITCHEN
• BEAMED CEILINGS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $864 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 655 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 655 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.14%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $39,835
• Equity at exit: $11,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $94,717
• Equity at exit: $6,649

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $864

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $917	-5% $890	+0% $864	+5% $837	+10% $811
Rent	-10% $724	-5% $794	+0% $864	+5% $934	+10% $1,003
Rate	-1.0pp $903	-0.5pp $883	base $864	+0.5pp $844	+1.0pp $824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 N FM 3083 Rd W Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,610	$1.76	0d	16	0.94mi
11823 Stonehedge Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1355	$1,650	$1.22	26d	1	0.96mi
2100 Hill Top Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1228	$1,599	$1.30	3d	1	1.12mi
719 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	45d	1	1.25mi
727 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,650	$1.23	14d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,900 Active 655 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,900 Active 652 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 651 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 650 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,900 Active 649 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 647 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,900 Active 643 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,900 Active 642 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,900 Active 641 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $76,900 Active 638 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,900 Active 637 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,900 Active 635 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,900 Active 634 DOM
14. 2024-10-22
    price $76,900 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom single wide with Great room and Island chef's kitchen. Come and see this beautiful and modern home with beamed ceilings and so much more! Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED

15. 2024-09-10
    price $85,900 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom single wide with Great room and Island chef's kitchen. Come and see this beautiful and modern home with beamed ceilings and so much more! Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED

16. 2024-09-04
    listed $98,900 Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Spacious 3 bedroom single wide with Great room and Island chef's kitchen. Come and see this beautiful and modern home with beamed ceilings and so much more! Delivered/Set & A/C ONLY - LAND NOT INCLUDED

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $9,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,333
• After-tax cash flow: $8,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathroom, and exterior. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some energy-efficient updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both Replace the ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans can reduce utility costs and improve comfort
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans can reduce utility costs and improve comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $76,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $85,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Listed $98,900 Zillow