2822 Carytown Loop · Wildwood, FL 32163

$419,599

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $325k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Richmond next to Brownwood Sq. Location is great! Near rec ctr and 2 pools.

Key facts

• 2 pools
• Near rec ctr
• Built 2022

Tags

• RICHMOND NEXT TO BROWNWOOD SQ
• NEAR REC CTR
• 2 POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-851 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (35.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (37.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,021 (37.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2775 Navy Hill Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+2%)	13mo	$420,000	$285	83
2909 Chimborazo Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+6%)	0mo	$400,000	$261	78
4280 Gale Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	1mo	$322,000	$224	64
5585 Hancock Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+3%)	16mo	$200,000	$134	64
2932 Beadle Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+2%)	4mo	$440,000	$299	60
5212 Oxford Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+4%)	17mo	$255,000	$170	57
4280 Canova Draney Loop	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+5%)	2mo	$340,000	$224	56
5598 Hancock Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	21mo	$152,000	$113	50
4371 Shannon Loop	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+7%)	7mo	$390,000	$250	48
4414 Cameo Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+7%)	12mo	$339,000	$219	46
5559 Heritage Blvd	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	15mo	$148,495	$119	36
4451 Elijah Loop	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,299 (-10%)	12mo	$355,000	$273	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $174,411
• Equity at exit: $378,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $556,339
• Equity at exit: $815,189

Cash invested: $117,488 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,200
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,734/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,717

Max offer price $269,334

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-613	-5% $-732	+0% $-851	+5% $-969	+10% $-1,088
Rent	-10% $-1,059	-5% $-955	+0% $-851	+5% $-746	+10% $-642
Rate	-1.0pp $-639	-0.5pp $-744	base $-851	+0.5pp $-959	+1.0pp $-1,070

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,900
• Closing costs: $12,588
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2910 Monument Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1494	$2,600	$1.74	22d	1	0.18mi
3480 Kewadin Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1758	$2,500	$1.42	22d	1	0.87mi
2577 Lindewood St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$2,495	$2.07	22d	1	0.91mi
3359 Brianna Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$3,100	$1.96	22d	1	1.00mi
3412 Melissa Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,200	$1.92	22d	1	1.01mi
1016 Century Dr Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,399	$1.37	22d	1	1.03mi
6629 Dan DiCiolla Dr Wildwood, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,399	$2.23	22d	44	1.11mi
605 Sunnyside Dr Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	22d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $419,599 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,599 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,599 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,599 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,599 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,599 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,599 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,599 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,599 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,599 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,599 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,599 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,599 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $419,599 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $419,599 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,734 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,734 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,504
• − Property taxes: −$6,734
• − Insurance: −$2,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$12,207
• Taxable loss: −$17,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,303
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $419,599 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+254.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,734 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.