144 Azalea Dr Unit B · Manchester, NJ 08759

$117,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 227 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Good condition $106/sqft · 53% below area $388/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Crestwood 1- 55+ Community Move right into this beautifully updated gem- nothing to do but pack your bags. Enjoy all the benefits of CW1, including 9 hole golf course, dog park, shuttle bus, clubhouse featuring gym, bocce, and a variety of clubs and activities. This home features newly renovated eat-in kitchen with quartz countertop, stainless steel appliances. Enjoy numerous upgrades throughout including, New electrical panel, new thermostats, Faux wood blinds, designer ceiling fans in every room, wainscoting and new molding. Updated bathroom with new vanity, fixtures and so much more to see. Your future home is waiting. Don't miss your chance to see this home and make it yours.

Key facts

• Quartz countertop
• Updated kitchen
• New electrical panel

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• NEW THERMOSTATS
• FAUX WOOD BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $117k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($441/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 130d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,794
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: -53.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Petunia Ln N	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+4%)	1mo	$319,900	$281	74
23 Snowberry Ln Unit A	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,216 (+10%)	4mo	$115,000	$95	72
701 Orchid St	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+4%)	6mo	$300,000	$263	70
7 Crocus Ln Unit B	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,220 (+11%)	4mo	$128,125	$105	68
7-B Crocus	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,220 (+11%)	4mo	$128,125	$105	68
1B Myrtle Pl	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,220 (+11%)	9mo	$140,000	$115	64
519 Petunia Ln N	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+4%)	10mo	$275,000	$241	64
553 Petunia Ln N	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+4%)	11mo	$311,500	$273	63
73 B Bellhaven Ct	0.18mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (-9%)	11mo	$120,000	$120	62
5 A Verbina Ct	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,216 (+10%)	12mo	$89,000	$73	59
27 Crocus Ln Unit B	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,220 (+11%)	12mo	$140,000	$115	51
15 B Wintergreen Ln	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,216 (+10%)	14mo	$145,000	$119	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-16,356
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,163
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $136,250 ($121/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +88.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$388
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $77	+0% $37	+5% $-4	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-25	+0% $37	+5% $98	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $67	base $37	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	144d	1	0.23mi
27A Stonybrook Rd Unit 61 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	814	$1,750	$2.15	55d	1	1.12mi
5B Graystone Pl Unit B Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1113	$1,700	$1.53	0d	1	1.15mi
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	184d	1	1.27mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	130d	1	1.30mi
48B Milford Ave #53 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,750	$1.73	25d	1	1.44mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	165d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail $388/mo · $4,656/yr

• Likely covers: electricgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $117,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $117,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $117,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $117,000 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $117,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $117,000 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $117,000 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $117,000 Active 218 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $117,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $117,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $117,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    pricedays on market $117,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    statusdays on market $120,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-10-10
    status $120,000 Pending 212 DOM
16. 2026-10-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-10-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-10-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-10-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 209 DOM
20. 2026-10-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 208 DOM
21. 2026-10-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 207 DOM
22. 2026-10-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 206 DOM
23. 2026-10-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 205 DOM
24. 2026-10-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 204 DOM
25. 2026-09-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 203 DOM
26. 2026-09-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 202 DOM
27. 2026-09-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 201 DOM
28. 2026-09-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 200 DOM
29. 2026-09-26
    days on market $120,000 Active 199 DOM
30. 2026-09-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 198 DOM
31. 2026-09-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 197 DOM
32. 2026-09-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 196 DOM
33. 2026-09-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 195 DOM
34. 2026-09-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 194 DOM
35. 2026-09-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 193 DOM
36. 2026-09-19
    days on market $120,000 Active 192 DOM
37. 2026-09-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 191 DOM
38. 2026-09-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 190 DOM
39. 2026-09-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 189 DOM
40. 2026-09-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 188 DOM
41. 2026-09-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 187 DOM
42. 2026-09-13
    days on market $120,000 Active 186 DOM
43. 2026-09-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 185 DOM
44. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $120,000 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-09-05
    days on market $124,000 Active 178 DOM
46. 2026-09-04
    days on market $124,000 Active 177 DOM
47. 2026-09-02
    days on market $124,000 Active 175 DOM
48. 2026-08-31
    days on market $124,000 Active 173 DOM
49. 2026-08-29
    days on market $124,000 Active 171 DOM
50. 2026-08-28
    price $124,000 Active 170 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − HOA: −$4,656
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable loss: −$1,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$292
• After-tax cash flow: $733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,500–$16,500 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with recent updates, including a newly renovated kitchen and bathroom. It is move-in ready with a good curb appeal and is located in a community with various amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace front door — Improves entryway and security ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $165,000 MOMLS